中国出口贸易之谜:一个生产率冲击层面的解释——基于中国对35国(地区)出口贸易的面板协整分析  

The Puzzle of China's Export Trade: One Interpretation from the Perspective of Productivity Shock

作　　者：苏立峰[1] 李文[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第6期32-45,共14页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10BJY102)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：传统贸易理论认为汇率升值会导致出口量的下降，但我国在2002—2013年的大部分时间里，人民币升值过程中出口规模仍然在持续扩张，该现象可称为“中国出口贸易之谜”。文章提出一个以生产率提高为主要内容的“生产率冲击”因素来解释中国的出口贸易之谜。通过利用我国出口量数据，以双边实际汇率、国外收入及中国绝对生产率水平或相对生产率水平为解释变量进行面板协整，结果表明收入和生产率的影响均显著为正，而汇率的影响显著为负，均符合理论预期。The appreciation of exchange rates is supposed to result in the shrinkage of export trade theoretically in the classical imperfect substitution theory. However, Chinese export trade volume kept enlarging from 2002 to 2013, while RMB exchange rate appreciated most of the time, which can be called ＂The puzzle of China＇s export trade＂. The paper proposes the productivity shock with productivity improvement as a main content to make an explanation. Taking advantage of the export trade data between China and 35 economies, it makes an analysis, and the results of panel co-integration indicate that foreign income and Chinese absolute or comparative productivity have significantly positive effects on export trade volume, while bilateral real exchange rate has a significantly negative effect.

关 键 词：出口贸易 人民币汇率 生产率冲击 面板协整 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]