发达国家碳关税征收对我国的影响究竟如何——基于多区域CGE模型的定量评估  

The Impact of Carbon Tariffs Imposed by Developed Countries on China's Economy:An Analysis Based on a Multi-region CGE Model

作　　者：宋建新[1] 崔连标[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,北京100083 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠230026

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第6期72-86,共15页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委面上项目(No.71171001)

摘　　要：在缺少全球性协议的背景下,一些发达国家一直试图在对包含中国在内的发展中国家征收碳关税,碳关税对我国的影响究竟如何?尽管目前许多研究对此问题进行了探讨,但所得结果差异较大。为探究原因,文章采用多区域CGE模型,从不确定性视角出发,研究了发达国家碳关税征收对我国经济的影响。模拟结果揭示,不确定性因素在碳关税影响评估中起着十分重要的作用,是造成当前研究结果呈现不一致的主要原因。碳关税的行业覆盖范围和商品隐含碳核算方式选取对评估结果影响较大。本文发现,若考虑发达国家国内减排措施,碳关税征收对我国经济的负面影响将会有所减小,甚至在一定情况下,某些指标出现方向性改变。本研究有助于准确把握发达国家碳关税征收对我国经济的潜在影响,相关结果有利于决策者制定合理的应对措施。In the case of no international environmental agreements, some developed countries are trying to impose carbon tariffs on the import from the developing parities. What＇s the impact of carbon tariffs on China＇s economy？ Although many scholars have contributed to the issue, their results vary differently. This paper focuses on the impact of carbon tariffs imposed by developed countries on China＇s economy with a multi-region CGE model from the perspective of uncertainties. The results show that the uncertainties play an important role in the evaluation, which is also the important reason for different simulation results from different researches. In particular, the sectorial converge of carbon tariffs and the accounting method for estimating carbons embodied in the final product are the two crucial uncertainties, which may affect the results significantly. This paper also finds that the carbon-pricing policies in developed countries may alleviate the negative effect of carbon tariffs on China＇s economy, and especially in some cases the indexes will change their signals. The study will be useful for obtaining an accurate evaluation of carbon tariffs.

关 键 词：碳关税 不确定性 能源版全球贸易分析模型 

分 类 号：F745[经济管理—国际贸易]