1952-2012年蚌埠市雷暴气候统计特征研究  

A Study on Climatic Characteristics of Thunderstorm in Bengbu from 1952 to 2012

作　　者：陆琴琴[1,2] 汪翔[2] 叶金印[3] 周丽雅[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]蚌埠市气象局,安徽蚌埠233040 [3]安徽省气象台,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《安徽师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期285-289,共5页Journal of Anhui Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41130639);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006037)

摘　　要：利用蚌埠市1952-2012年雷暴资料,采用气候倾向率、保证率、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析等气候诊断方法,分析蚌埠市近61a雷暴的气候变化趋势、初终日分布、突变和周期变化特征.结果表明:蚌埠市雷暴日数年际变化较大,平均雷暴日数总体呈略下降趋势,夏季雷暴日数下降趋势最明显;雷暴有很强的季节性,集中出现在4-9月份,以7月份出现最多;雷暴初日普遍在3月中旬,终日普遍在9月下旬,雷暴初终日年际间差异大;雷暴日数呈先升后降的气候变化趋势,显著突变年份是1980年;雷暴日数年际和年代际变化存在2-4a、10-12a以及准16a振荡周期.With the data of thunderstorms in Bengbu from 1952 to 2012, the climatological variation trends, initial and ending dates,abrupt changes and periodicity features of thunderstorms during the recent 61years are analyzed by means of climatic trends, assurance ratios, Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and MoNet wavelets analysis The results show that the interannual thunderstorm variability is great and the mean annual thunderstorm days decline because of the reducing of thunderstorm days in summer. Most thunderstorms appear from April to September, of which July reaches the toppest. The initial thunderstorm dates occur in mid-March while the ending dates occur in late September. Interannual thunderstorm variability presents a trend of first increasing then decreasing and the significant abrupt change occurs in 1980. The thunderstorm days show 2 - 4 years, 10 - 12 years and 16 years oscillating periods for inter-annual and inter-decadal variations.

关 键 词：雷暴 气候特征 Mann-Kendall突变检验 MORLET小波分析 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]