中日双边贸易和FDI对经济收敛的影响及机制研究  

A Study on Impacts of Sino- Japanese Bilateral Trade and FDI on Economic Convergence and Influence Mechanisms

作　　者：杨帆[1] 颜蒙[1] 刘力臻[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2015年第4期42-52,共11页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"世界经济周期波动对中国经济的传导机制研究"(14YJC790151);中国博士后科学基金第55批面上资助项目"经济周期波动的国际传导机制研究"(2014M551146)

摘　　要：本文对中日双边贸易和FDI对两国间经济收敛的影响进行实证检验,并对影响机制进行分析。考虑到以往实证研究中施加的种种先验约束,本文首先放松对称收敛速度和瞬时结构变化的假设,对中日经济收敛趋势进行考察,进而放松数据生成服从既定过程的假定,构造差分局部投影脉冲响应函数检验中日双边贸易和FDI对经济收敛的影响。研究结论表明:中日经济增长路径存在着非对称收敛趋势,中日双边贸易是两国经济收敛的长期原因之一,但在中短期将导致经济差距的拉大;中日间FDI的经济收敛效应时滞较短,持续时间较长;此外,中日间FDI对贸易的替代效应在中短期较为明显,但从长期看收入效应将占据主导地位,这又将间接推动中日经济收敛的实现。The purpose of this paper is investigating the impacts and mechanisms of Sino - Japanese bilat- eral trade and FDI on Sino - Japanese economic convergence. Considering the prior restrictions of previous studies, this paper first relaxes the assumption of symmetric convergence speed and instantaneous structur- al change and tests the Sino -Japanese economic convergence trend, and then relaxes the assumption that the data follow a certain generating process and analyzes the impacts of Sino - Japanese trade and FDI on economic convergence using difference local projections impulse response function method. According to the results, there is asymmetric convergence trend for the economic growth paths of China and Japan. Sino - Japanese bilateral trade is one of the reasons for the long - term economic convergence between the two countries, but in the short term it will lead to a widening economic gap. Economic convergence effect of Si- no - Japanese Bilateral FDI will delay shorter but last longer. In addition, the substitution effect of FDI on the Sino- Japanese bilateral trade is more prominent in the short term, but the income effects will domi- nate in the long term, which in turn promote Sino -Japanese economic convergence indirectly.

关 键 词：中日双边贸易 中日间FDI 经济收敛 差分局部投影 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F753.313.82[经济管理—国际贸易]