一种空降地域选择风险评估的概率影响图方法  

Risk Evaluation Method Based on Probability Influence Diagram for Airborne Area Selection

作　　者：赵飞 王青山[1] 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学地理空间信息学院 [2]95900部队

出　　处：《四川兵工学报》2015年第6期97-100,共4页Journal of Sichuan Ordnance

摘　　要：针对传统方法对风险考虑不够的问题,提出了一种基于概率影响图的空降地域选择风险评估方法;通过详细分析影响空降地域选择的风险因素及其相互关系并结合历史数据和作战经验,建立了空降地域选择风险评估的概率影响图模型;通过风险量化和概率推理,最终得出了空降地域选择风险的概率评估,最后通过实例验证了模型的有效性。Aiming at the problem that the traditional method has considered few decision-risk, a risk assessment method based on probability influence diagram was presented. By analyzing on influence diagram model for risk factors and its correlations of airborne area selection, and combining with past data and experiences, the influence diagram model for risk assessment of airborne area selection was built. Finally, the risk probability on airborne area selection was computed out by quantizing risk and probabilistic reasoning, and the model＇s validity was proved by an instance.

关 键 词：概率影响图 空降地域 风险评估 

分 类 号：E919[军事]