影响山西省气温变化的可能原因分析与检验  

Analysis and Test About Possible Reasons for Temperature Change in Shanxi Province

作　　者：李瑞萍[1] 郭雪梅[2] 李智才[3] 

机构地区：[1]太原市气象局,太原030082 [2]山西省气象局,太原030002 [3]山西省气候中心,太原030006

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2015年第2期77-81,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：山西省自然科学基金(2009011045-1)资助

摘　　要：选取大气环流指数、太阳黑子、CO2浓度、能源消费等可能影响气温变化的因子,采用1960—2009年资料序列,运用计量经济学方法,对山西省年平均气温与相关因子的格兰杰因果关系进行了检验,结果显示:1)从20世纪60年代开始,亚洲极涡强度指数、亚洲纬向环流指数及全球CO2浓度均是山西年平均气温变化的格兰杰原因,而太阳黑子从20世纪70年代开始才明显影响到山西省平均气温的变化,且影响的隔年效应显著。2)因果关系检验的统计量对比表明,在影响因子中,亚洲纬向环流指数对山西平均气温的影响最为显著,持续时间也最长,影响山西年气温变化的根本原因是大气环流自身的变化规律,即自然因素是影响气温变化的主要原因。3)全球CO2浓度变化是人类活动的直接结果,也是山西平均气温变化的人为因素。节能减排,控制CO2浓度的快速增加,是保护气候资源的唯一可行的途径。Using the effect factors of temperature change such as atmosphere circulation index, sunspot, CO2 concentration, energy consumption in Shanxi province during 1960--2009, the paper adopts the econometric method to analyze and test the Granger causality between correlation factor and temperalure change. The results are as follows. 1 ） Since 1960s, Asian polar vortex intensive index, Asian zonal circulation index and CO2 concentration are the Granger cause of mean temperature change in Shanxi, sunspot have influenced the change of mean temperature since 1970s obviously, and have prominent effect last for years. 2） In contrast to test statistic, show that the most dramatic effect is Asian zonal circulation index in several influence factors, and it＇ s effect is the longest. The basic reason of effect on annual mean temperature in Shanxi is own change rule of atmospheric circulation. The natural factor is main cause which influenced temperature change. 3）The increasing of global CO2 concentration is human activity direct result and human factor of influenced temperature change. The energy saving emission and controlling rapid growth of CO2 concentration is the only reliable way to protect climate resources.

关 键 词：气温变化 影响因子 格兰杰因果关系检验 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]