一类潜伏期具有常数输人率的SEIR模型在流感防控中的应用  

The Application of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Constant Immigration in Incubation Period in Prevention and Control Flu

作　　者：李冬梅[1] 桂春羽[1] 温盼盼 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学应用科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第12期160-166,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黑龙江省自然基金(A200502);黑龙江省教育厅项目(12521099)

摘　　要：针对流感病毒具有的潜伏性、隐性感染者的流动难于防控性、较高的病死率及治愈后拥有的免疫力等特性建立了潜伏期具有常数输入率的SEIR传染病模型.证明了疾病模型仅存在地方病平衡点,并且是全局渐近稳定的,给出了流感防控过程中总人口输入控制及针对染病者占总人数百分比不同情况下的对隐性染病者输入比例控制值的计算公式,并对甲型H1N1流感病毒相应数据数值模拟.An epidemic model with constant recruitment in incubation period was proposed, according to the latent, difficult to control the flow of latent infection, higher mortality and immunity after the cure of influenza virus. Only the endemic equilibrium and its global asymptotical stability were proved. The control formulas of the total population recruitment and the percentage of latent infection recruitment in different percentages of total population of infections were given. Numerical simulation of H1N1 influenza virus corresponding data was present.

关 键 词：流感 潜伏期 常数输入 稳定性 控制措施 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]