两岸贸易对台湾劳动力就业效应的研究  

The Impact of Cross-strait Trade on Employment in Taiwan

作　　者：范芹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学 [2]中共深圳市委党校

出　　处：《台湾研究》2015年第3期78-84,共7页Taiwan Studies

摘　　要：本文利用改进的竞争型投入产出表分析两岸贸易对台湾就业的影响,并借助偏差分析法探讨两岸贸易的就业效应随时间变动的原因。研究表明,相较于台湾与欧美日国家之间的贸易对台湾就业的影响,台湾出口大陆对台湾就业的拉动更大,而进口大陆对就业的替代则较小。文章同时指出两岸贸易规模扩张是其就业变动的主要原因,进出口贸易结构对就业的影响较小,但趋于增加。另外,随着两岸贸易往来的正常化,台湾自大陆进口替代的就业量趋于增加,这可能成为岛内部分学者和民众反对两岸贸易深化的主要依据点。This paper investigates empirically the impact of Cross-Strait trade on employment, then esti- mates the change of Cross-Strait trade effect and its main causes. The results indicate that compared to trade with other countries, Taiwan＇s export to mainland makes great contribution to employment while Taiwan＇s import from mainland plays a minor role in employment. We also find that expansion of the Cross-Strait trade is the main reason of employment, and import and export structure has unobvious effected on the change of em- ployment, hut it tends to increase. Besides,with the normalization of Cross-Strait trade, Taiwan＇s import from mainland tends to decrease employment, which may be the Excuses that Taiwan Residents opposed to closed commu- nication between mainland and Taiwan.

关 键 词：两岸贸易 投入产出 贸易结构 就业 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]