中国老年人的婚姻状况与变化趋势——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析  

Status and Trends of Marriage of Chinese Elderly:Based on the Sixth Census of China

作　　者：孙鹃娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2015年第4期77-85,共9页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:农村留守老年人的生活质量状况与养老服务需求研究(11CRK010);国务院第六次人口普查领导小组办公室第六次全国人口普查重点课题:中国人口老龄化和老年人口问题研究

摘　　要：本文基于2010年第六次全国人口普查数据,并结合第四次、第五次人口普查数据,对我国老年人的婚姻状况及变化趋势进行分析。发现二十年来我国老年人有配偶的比例明显提高,丧偶率下降,但丧偶老年人数量迅速增长,未婚和离婚的老年人比例都有所上升。与男性老年人相比,女性老年人有配偶的比例随年龄增长下降幅度更大。老年人婚姻状况的城乡差异和地区差异明显,农村男性老年人的未婚趋势和城市老年人的离婚趋势尤为突出。通过队列分析发现女性从60岁迈向70岁过程中面临的丧偶风险最大,男性65岁以上年龄组面临的丧偶风险最大。This paper analyses the marital status and its change trends based on the 6^th, 5^th and 4^th Censuses of China. The results show that the proportion of the elderly with spouse increased significantly and the per- centage of widowed elderly decreased since 1990. However, the number of widowed elderly increased prom- inently and the shares of unmarried and divorced elderly improved within the 20 years. Compared with that of the male elderly, the proportion of female elderly with spouse declined much sharply with the advance of age. The differences of marital status were great between rural and urban elderly. Unmarried trend among rural male elderly and divorced trend among urban elderly were particularly prominent. The results through cohort analysis indicate that the biggest risk of losing spouse for female elderly was found to be happened from the age of 60 to 70,while the risk for male elderly will increase distinctly later than the age of 65.

关 键 词：老年人 婚姻状况 六普 队列分析 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]