致密油地质风险分析方法与流程初探  

Preliminary Geology Risk Analysis and Process in Tight Oil Reservoir

作　　者：汪少勇 王社教 李登华 郑曼 武娜 

机构地区：[1]中油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《特种油气藏》2015年第3期1-7,151,共7页Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs

基　　金：国家科技重大专项"大型油气田及煤层气开发"(2011ZX05028-002);中国石油天然气集团公司重大专项"四川盆地侏罗系石油勘探开发关键技术研究"(2012E-2601);中国石油天然气集团公司重大专项"油气资源评价--中国石油第四次油气资源评价"(2013E-0502)

摘　　要：非常规连续型致密油资源勘探潜力巨大,但由于储层致密、资源丰度低等因素,仍需要进行地质风险分析。由于石油聚集方式不同,常规的以圈闭为核心的地质风险分析流程并不适用于"连续聚集"的致密油资源,但二者在风险评价方法上有许多相似性。国内外已建立了较为成熟的常规油气地质风险分析流程与方法,采用地质分析、概率统计的方法定性识别、定量估计成藏地质要素及过程的不确定性。致密油的地质资源丰度一般较低,在其分布范围内并不是所有井都能钻遇工业油流,其地质风险分析需与钻井技术、经济分析相结合。影响致密油富集及经济开发的4个独立的风险因素分别是烃源岩有效性、储层物性、"甜点"分布控制要素、当前技术水平及开发因素。按照地质分析的顺序,致密油风险分析的流程分为5个步骤,分别为定向、定源、定储、找甜点和定产能。烃源岩是否优质有效、储层含油是否充足、储层产能能否达到经济下限是致密油地质风险分析的重点。Due to the tight reservoir,low resource abundance and other aspects,geology risk analysis is still necessary for unconventional continuous tight oil resource with tremendous exploration potential. Traps are considered as the core of geology risk analysis in conventional resource,which is inapplicable to the'continuous accumulation'tight oil resources due to the difference in accumulation. However,there are still many similarities between the two risk analysis methods. Relatively mature geology risk analysis methods and processes of conventional resources had been established at home and abroad. Geology analysis,probability and statistics are used to qualitatively identify and quantitatively estimate the uncertainty of accumulation geology factors and processes. Generally,tight oil resource is featured by low abundance and industrial oil flow cannot be obtained in every well. Drilling technologies and economic analysis must be combined in the geology risk analysis. The four independent risk factors that related to tight oil enrichment and economic development are effectiveness of source rocks,reservoir properties; key factors that control 'sweet-spot'distribution,current technology level and development factors respectively. According to the sequence of geology risk analysis,the process of geology risk analysis in tight oil resource includes five steps,which are orientation,source identification,reserve determination,sweet-spot identification and productivity determination respectively. Geology risk analysis of tight oil resource focused on the source-rock quality,reservoir saturation and whether the reservoir can reach economic lower limit.

关 键 词：致密油 地质风险分析 分析方法 分析流程 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]