旅游安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法  

Set pair analysis-variable fuzzy method for tourism safety early warning

作　　者：罗景峰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学旅游学院,福建泉州362021 [2]中国旅游研究院旅游安全研究基地,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第4期151-156,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：联校教育社科医学研究论文奖计划(ZS2015005);华侨大学中央高校基本科研业务费-华侨大学哲学社会科学青年学者成长工程项目(13SKGC-QT03)

摘　　要：为解决可变模糊方法在旅游安全预警中存在的计算过程复杂和难于确定阈值的问题,基于集对分析理论、可变模糊集理论及二元语义方法,提出旅游安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法。首先,基于集对模糊联系度,构造可变模糊集理论的相对差异度,进而建立集对分析-可变模糊综合评价模型;然后,结合预警分级特征值,运用二元语义方法确定旅游安全预警级别和阈值;最后,将该方法应用于实际算例,并就预警结果与其他旅游安全预警方法进行对比分析。结果表明:集对分析-可变模糊预警方法在简化计算过程的前提下,所得预警结果与BP神经网络方法、TOPSIS方法、可变模糊方法基本一致。Aiming at overcoming the shortcomings in the variable fuzzy method, such as a complex calcu- lation process and difficult definition of threshold, based on set pair analysis theory, the variable fuzzy set theory and two-tuple semantic method, a set pair analysis-variable fuzzy method was worked out for tourism safety early warning . Firstly, relative difference degree was constructed on the basis of fuzzy degree of connection. Further, a set pair analysis-variable fuzzy comprehensive assessment model was established. Then, combined with the grade characteristic value of tourism safety early waring, the grade of early waring and threshold were determined using two-tuple semantic method. Finally, the method was applied to numerical examples and compared with other methods. The comparison results show that set pair analy- sis-variable fuzzy method simplify the calculation procedure, and that early warning results obtained are basically consistent with those obtained by BP neural network method, TOPSIS method or variable fuzzy method.

关 键 词：旅游安全 预警 集对分析 二元语义方法 可变模糊综合评价模型 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]