水电厂突发事件应急救援方案云决策模型研究  

Hydropower emergency rescue decision model based on cloud

作　　者：郑霞忠[1,2] 邵波[1] 陈玲[1] 陈述[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡地区地质灾害与生态环境湖北省协同创新中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第4期157-163,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51379110);湖北省教育厅科学研究计划资助(Q20151210);三峡大学研究生科研创新基金资助(2014CX003)

摘　　要：为更好地解决水电厂突发事件应急救援方案决策中存在的模糊性和不确定性问题,构建水电厂突发事件应急救援方案云决策模型。首先,系统分析水电厂突发事件特点及其应急救援方案决策特征,建立应急救援方案决策指标集;其次,综合运用云理论及正、逆向云发生器,结合决策者经验和客观事实,确定决策指标权重标准云和评价标准云;最后,对应急救援方案评价信息进行定性定量转换,得到各应急救援方案评价云,并将其与评价标准云比较,确定最优应急救援方案。研究结果表明,使用水电厂应急救援方案云决策模型,能克服应急救援方案决策的模糊性和不确定性,确保优选方案符合评价等级;同时以图形化显示决策结果,使方案决策更直观形象。In order to solve better the problem of ambiguity and uncertainty in hydropower emergency res- cue decision making, a scheme decision model based on cloud for hydropower emergency rescue was estab- lished. Firstly, through systematic analysis of hydropower emergency features and emergency rescue decision characteristics, an emergency rescue decision index set was established. Secondly, a weight standard cloud and an evaluation standard cloud of decision indexes were determined with cloud theory and its forward and backward generators according to decision-makersPexperience and objective fact. Finally, each emergency rescue scheme evaluation cloud was obtained by transforming qualitative evaluation information given by experts into quantitative information . An optimal emergency rescue scheme was obtained by comparing the emergency rescue scheme evaluation cloud with the evaluation standard cloud. The results show that with model based on cloud, the ambiguity and uncertainty of hydropower emergency rescue decision-making can be overcame, the optimal scheme is congruous with the evaluation level, decision results can be indicated graphically, and emergency rescue scheme decision making can be made more direct and vivid.

关 键 词：应急救援 云模型 方案决策 突发事件 水电厂 

分 类 号：X928.02[环境科学与工程—安全科学]