基于系统动力学方法的鄱阳湖流域水量平衡过程模拟与分析  

Simulation and analysis of water balance process in Poyang Lake Basin based on system dynamic approach

作　　者：朱漫莉 高海鹰[1] 徐力刚[2] 张杰[3] 吴永明[3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学土木工程学院,江苏南京210096 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [3]江西省科学院,江西南昌330096

出　　处：《水资源保护》2015年第3期46-52,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371121;41271034);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB417005);中国科学院支持全国科学院联盟建设专项重大项目;江西省科技支撑项目(20122BBG70160)

摘　　要：以鄱阳湖及其流域为研究对象,采用系统动力学(SD)方法构建了整个流域系统基本要素之间的物理结构和关系,对鄱阳湖流域水量平衡过程进行了模拟分析。以1978—1997年为校核期、1998—2007年为验证期,对鄱阳湖五河流域径流量及湖口水位模拟值与实测值进行比较分析。结果表明SD方法在流域产流、河湖水量交换过程的模拟上能取得较理想的效果。在此基础上,模拟了鄱阳湖流域降水、气温和用水量分别增减10%时,其他相关要素的系统响应。用水量、气温和降水的影响比例约为1∶3∶10,降水通过控制地表径流量、气温通过影响蒸散发和土壤蓄水来影响流域水文水资源过程。研究结果定量揭示了整个流域范围内水量变化的各环节对气候变化和人类活动的响应,反映了流域系统各个组成部分的相互作用。Taking Poyang Lake and its watershed as the study subject, the physical structure and relationships of the basic elements of the whole basin system were constructed by the system dynamics（ SD） approach, simulating and analyzing the water balance process of Poyang Lake Basin.Taking the years from 1978 to 1997 as the calibration period, and the years from 1998 to 2007 as the validation period, the simulated value and the measured value of the runoff and lake level of five river basins of Poyang Lake were compared and analyzed.The results indicate that adopting the SD approach can acquire an ideal performance on the simulation of basin runoff and water exchanging process between rivers and lake.Then we simulated the system response with 10% decrement and increment of precipitation, temperature and water usage in Poyang Lake Basin.The effects ratio of precipitation, temperature and water usage is 1 ∶3 ∶10.Precipitation influences the basin hydrological and water resource process by controlling surface runoff, while temperature by affecting evapotranspiration and soil water storage.This＆amp;nbsp;research has quantitatively explored the response of every links of water change in the whole basin to climate change and human activities, reflecting the interaction of various components in the basin system.

关 键 词：系统动力学 鄱阳湖流域 水量平衡 过程模拟 

分 类 号：P331.1[天文地球—水文科学]