山东精细化海区风的MOS预报方法研究  

A study on MOS forecasting method of gale wind in Shandong coast

作　　者：荣艳敏[1] 阎丽凤[1] 盛春岩[1] 范苏丹[1] 车军辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象科学研究所,山东济南250031

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第3期59-67,共9页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：中国气象局公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106006);山东省科技发展计划(2011GSF12002)

摘　　要：基于中尺度数值模式WRF_RUC的预报产品,采用逐步回归的MOS方法,对山东12个精细海区代表站有关大风进行解释应用。对2013年9月—2014年4月海区风的客观预报产品进行检验,结果表明:MOS预报方法对6级以上日最大风速有较好的预报能力,较WRF_RUC模式直接输出的预报结果有了明显的提高,但对4级以下小风预报效果较差。选取4级风作为阈值,当WRF_RUC模式预报风力大于4级时,用MOS预报结果替换,显著提高了风速分级预报效果,无论是4级以下小风还是6级以上大风,MOS预报评分都要高于WRF_RUC模式预报。将平均风速与阵风的统计关系应用到阵风客观预报中,MOS方法对于改进的日极大风速的预报效果有明显提高,对10级强风也有一定的预报能力。Using forecast products of the mesoscale numerical model WRF_RUC and regressive MOS statistical method, the strong wind is predicted in twelve subtilized coastal areas of Shandong province. Based on verification of forecast products from September 2013 to Apr 2014, the results show： for the daily strongest wind, MOS method has stronger forecast ability for the wind force scale above 6, and has been significantly improved compared with WRF_RUC model, but has weaker forecast ability for the wind force scale below 4. Selecting the wind force scale 4 as a threshold value, replace forecast result with MOS method when the forecast result of WRF RUC model is greater than this value. This method can significantly improve the wind force forecast effect. No matter the wind force scale is below 4 or above 6, the forecast score of MOS method will be higher than WRF_RUC model. Application of the statistical relationship between average wind and gust can improve the forecast effect of the MOS method markedly, and also can obtain the forecast ability of the wind force scale above 10.

关 键 词：海上大风 TS评分 MOS方法 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]