无水文资料地区参证流域选择方法  

Selecting Method for a Reference Basin in Ungauged Regions

作　　者：王文圣[1,2] 李跃清[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065

出　　处：《成都工业学院学报》2015年第2期7-10,18,共5页Journal of Chengdu Technological University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"水文水资源集对分析方法的科学基础及应用研究"(51179110)

摘　　要：为解决无水文资料地区水文计算的难题,科学客观地选择参证流域,针对4种参证流域选择的定量分析法:灰色分析法、模糊分析法、投影寻踪法和集对分析法,结合实际案例,探讨了其实质、特点及其优缺点。结果表明:4种方法的原理和处理手段存在差异,因其具有统一的客观评价基础,最终结果是一致的,因此4种方法具有普遍适用性,在实际工作中,使用者可根据资料条件和爱好选择使用。Long-term hydrologic prediction in ungauged basins is one of critical issues in the field of hydrologic calculations.Hydrologic analogy is an important method for long-term hydrologic prediction and hydrologic calculation in ungauged basins.The key point of hydrologic analogy is how to select a reference basin.This paper systematically discusses four popular methods for selecting a reference basin in China, which include grey analysis, fuzzy analysis, projection pursuit （ PP） and set pair analysis.Through a case study in small basins in Hebei Province, the four methods are applied in the selection of a reference basin.The advantages and disadvantages of these methods are explored, respectively.The results indicate that all these four methods can be used in selecting a reference basin.It depends on user＇s familiarity with one specific method and the experiences of the user.

关 键 词：参证流域 灰色分析 模糊分析 投影寻踪 集对分析 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]