中国交通基础设施对区域旅游发展的影响研究——基于门槛回归模型的证据  

Research on the Impact of Traffic Infrastructure on Regional Tourism Development in China:Based on the Evidence of Threshold Regression Model

作　　者：李如友[1] 黄常州[1] 

机构地区：[1]盐城工学院人文社会科学学院,江苏盐城224051

出　　处：《旅游科学》2015年第2期1-13,27,共14页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"新型城镇化背景下我国旅游业影响经济增长的效应;机制与政策研究"(14CGL023)

摘　　要：利用中国1999 ～ 2012年省际面板数据和Hansen（1999）提出的门槛回归模型,对交通基础设施与区域旅游发展的关系进行了非线性估计.结果表明,在控制其他变量的条件下,中国交通基础设施对区域旅游发展的作用存在双重门槛,当交通基础设施水平处于低层次区制时,交通基础设施对旅游发展具有显著积极影响;当交通基础设施水平处于中层次区制时,交通基础设施对旅游发展未表现出显著影响;当交通基础设施水平处于高层次区制时,交通基础设施对旅游发展产生显著的负向影响.为此,本文提出的政策建议是：正确认识交通基础设施对区域旅游发展的作用,避免盲目的投资建设;借鉴其他地区的经验时要结合地方实际,引导交通基础设施建设发挥积极作用;重视交通基础设施与其他旅游发展影响因素的同步协调发展.With the provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2012 and the threshold regression model which was proposed by Hansen in 1999, this paper adopted the nonlinear estimation to assess the relationship between traffic infrastructure and tourism development. The results show that traffic infrastructure has duality impacts on regional tourism development in China; When traffic infrastructure is at low level, it would bring a significant and positive impact on tourism development while no obvious impact at moderate level; However, it has an obvious negative impact on tourism development at high level. Given this situation, this paper suggested that： 1 ） The impacts of traffic infrastructure on tourism development should be fully recognized; 2） Traffic infrastructure should be led to play a significant and positive role; 3 ） The simultaneous and coordinated development between traffic infrastructure and other influential factors about tourism development should be valued.

关 键 词：交通基础设施 旅游发展 门槛回归模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]