基于空间自回归模型的景观格局变化对河网水系连通性影响分析  

Analysis of the impact of landscape pattern change on the river network connectivity based on the spatial auto-regression model

作　　者：沈洁[1] 赵军[2] 尚钊仪[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学生态与环境科学学院,上海200241 [2]上海大学环境与化学工程学院,上海200444

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期124-135,共12页Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：水利部公益性行业专项经费项目子课题(201201072-04);上海市环保局;水务局科研项目

摘　　要：针对快速城市化导致的河网水系连通性削弱问题,以上海市原浦东新区为例,利用ArcGIS网格化技术,分析了1989年、2010年土地利用和河网水系连通性的时空变化特征,并利用空间自回归模型分析影响连通性的城市景观格局指标.结果表明:1浦东新区土地利用总体表现为农业用地和水域向建设用地转变,河网水系连通性表征指标连接率β和实际结合度γ的平均值分别由1989年的0.80和0.30降低为2010年的0.72和0.25,东南部与西部地区存在空间差异;2空间自回归模型拟合结果表明公共建筑用地斑块数(NP)与水域平均斑块面积(AREA_MN)是影响河网水系连通性变化的主要因素,道路交通用地平均斑块面积(AREA_MN)、工业用地最大斑块指数(LPI),以及城市工业用地、居住用地和水域的散布与并列指数(IJI)对连通性变化也有一定影响.Aiming at the situation that rapid urbanization had weakened river network connectivity,taking Pudong New Area as an example,and applying gridding method of ArcGIS software,this paper analyzes the temporal and special variations of land use and river network connectivity from1989 to 2010,and detects the indexes of urban landscape pattern that affected river network connectivity using spatial auto-regression model.The results are：1 From1989 to2010,agricultural land and water area of Pudong New Area were mainly transformed to built-up land.The average values ofβdropped from0.80 to 0.72 while that ofγdeclined from0.30 to0.25.And there existed notable spatial differences between the northeastern and western regions both in land use and river network connectivity.② The model shows that number of patches（NP）for public building land and mean of patches area（AREA_MN）for water area are the most significant factors that influence river network connectivity.Besides,mean of patches area（AREA_MN）for road and traffic land,largest patch index（LPI）for industrial land,and interspersion juxtaposition index（IJI）of industrial land,residential land and water area also affect the change of river network connectivity.

关 键 词：河网水系连通性 城市化 景观格局变化 空间自回归 浦东新区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]