气候变化背景下中药大黄原植物的适生区分布预测  

Suitable Habitats Prediction of Original Plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma Under Climate Change

作　　者：周云[1] 李延[1] 王戌梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学药学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《中药材》2015年第3期467-472,共6页Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(xjj2014142)

摘　　要：目的:在气候变化背景下,预测中药大黄原植物当代及未来适生区分布格局。方法:采用最大熵模型及多种气候变化场景,预测大黄原植物适生区分布格局及变迁。结果:所构建的大黄原植物分布模型具有极佳的预测精度。大黄原植物当代适生区总面积为84.20×104km2,占中国版图的8.77%;其中,当代适生区57.05%的区域为相对稳定适生区,受气候变化影响相对较小。在气候变化背景下,相较于当代,其在21世纪20、30、40、50、60、70和80年代的适生区总面积均不同程度的减少,但中度适生区面积均有不同程度增加。结论:气候变化对中药大黄原植物的适生区总面积和生境适宜度均会产生负面影响。Objective：To predict the distribution patterns of the original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma current and in future in China under climate change. Methods：A maximum entropy modeling and variety of climate change scenarios were employed to predict its current and future distribution ranges in China. Results ：The resultant models exhibited excellent predictive power. The current suit- able habitats for original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma totaled 84. 20 × 10^4 km^2, accounting for 8. 77% of the total area of China; 57.05% of its current suitable habitats （i. e. low impact areas ）would be relatively lowly impacted by the climate change. Compared with its current distribution pattern,its distribution ranges during 2020s,2030s,2040s,2050,2060s,2070s and 2080s would be shrunk to some extent. However, the moderately suitable area would be expanded to a certain degree. Conclusion：Climate change has a negative impact on the total area and the habitat suitability for the original plants of Rhei Radix et Rhizoma.

关 键 词：大黄原植物 物种分布模型 生态位模型 最大熵模型 分布区预测 

分 类 号：Q948.1[生物学—植物学] R282.71[医药卫生—中药学]