经济增长泡沫的测度——三变量模型与虚拟经济研究  

The Measurement of Bubble Economy Growth——Three Variables Model and the Study in Virtual Economy

作　　者：毛善成[1] 

机构地区：[1]淮阴工学院,江苏淮安223003

出　　处：《广义虚拟经济研究》2015年第2期42-48,共7页Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy

摘　　要：虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率等于经济增长泡沫多少的相对测度。利用三变量模型估算了泰国和中国的经济增长泡沫，从而给出1997年亚洲金融风暴首先在泰国爆发的原因，1986～1998年泰国经济增长中有40％的经济泡沫是发生金融危机的数量基础，接下来泰国经济进入了去泡沫发展周期，1999～2010年经济增长只有不足2％的泡沫。作为比较，美国1992～2001年经济增长有三分之一为泡沫，进入21世纪后泡沫继续扩大终于2007破灭。中国2000～2009年经济增长的24％为增长泡沫，2009年增加4万亿刺激计划，其M2已从2009年的60万亿增加到2014年上半年的120万亿，估计中国2009～2014经济增长的50％～40％为增长泡沫，所以中国发生房地产泡沫破灭的危险已接近40％这根临界线。Rates of virtual economy＇s making a contributions to GDP growth is equal to the measurement of bubble economy growth. By three variables model,we estimated the bubble economy growth in Thailand and China, and we found out the origin of 1997 Asia financial crisis starting in Thailand. There was 40% bubble economy growth in Thailand＇s economic growth in 1986~1998, being a root of financial crisis occurrence. There was lack 2% bubble economy in Thailand＇s economic growth in 1999-2010, an eliminating bubble economy cycle. Moreover, there was 1/3 bubble economy inAmerica＇s economic growth in 1992-2001, the bubble kept on enlarging in 21 century and broke in 2007. There was 24% bubble economy growth in China＇s economic growth in 2000-2009, China increased 4 hundreds of millions to stimulate economic growth in 2009, M2 was 60 hundreds of millions in 2009 to 120 hundreds of millions in six 2014, so we estimated that China＇s bubble economy growth was 30%~40% and had approximated the critical line of 40% bubble economy, so there is a risk that China＇s bubble real estate will break soon.

关 键 词：三变量模型 虚拟经济 经济泡沫 亚太经济 经济增长 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]