基于协整理论的北京市电力与经济增长关系研究  

Study on Relationship between Electricity Demand and Economic Growth in Beijing Based on Co-integration Theory

作　　者：赵会茹[1] 赵名锐 李娜娜[1] 李付强[2] 胡娱欧 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京102206 [2]国家电网华北电网有限公司,北京100053

出　　处：《陕西电力》2015年第5期60-64,70,共6页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71373076);国家电网公司科技项目资助(SGHB0000DKJS1400116);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助

摘　　要：对北京市电力与经济增长的关系进行研究,可为其电力产业政策的制定提供科学依据。基于北京市1978-2012年电力需求与经济增长指标的数据,利用灰色关联分析筛选出北京市电力需求增长的影响因素。在此基础上利用协整理论,构建出北京市电力与经济增长的长期均衡模型与短期误差修正模型。结果表明:地区生产总值增加1%,全社会用电量增加0.28%;三产占比增加1%,全社会用电量增加0.12%;电力消费强度增加1个单位,全社会用电量增加3.91%;城镇化率增加1%,全社会用电量增加3.15%,城镇化进程促进其电力需求增长的作用明显。The study on the relationship between electricity and economy in Beijing can provide a scientific basis for the development of electric power industry policy. Based on the co-integration, this paper analyzes the relationship between the electricity demand and economic growth factors from 1978 to 2012 in Beijing. The economic factors influencing the electricity demand are selected by grey- relational theory. And then, the co-integration model and error correction model of the relationship between electricity and economy are established. Results show that when GDP increased by 1%, the total electricity consumption increased 0.28%; the tertiary industry accounted for 1% increase in total electricity consumption increased by 0.12%; electricity consumption intensity increase an unit, total electricity consumption increased 3.91%; urbanization rate increased by 1%, the total electricity consumption increased 3.15%. Therefore, the urbanization rate is the main factor that promotes the increase of electricity demand growth.

关 键 词：电力需求 灰色关联 协整 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]