农业保险对农业生产影响效应的实证研究——基于河北省面板数据和动态差分GMM模型  

An Empirical Studyon the Effect of Agricultural Insurance on Agricultural Production——Based on Panel Data of Hebei Province and the Dynamic and Difference GMM Model

作　　者：周稳海[1,2] 赵桂玲[3] 尹成远[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300130 [3]河北金融学院,河北保定071051

出　　处：《保险研究》2015年第5期60-68,共9页Insurance Studies

基　　金：2014年河北省软科学研究计划项目"河北省区域经济发展的农业保险支持研究"(课题编号:14457652D);2014年河北省社会科学基金项目"河北省农业保险推动农业现代化发展的动态研究"(课题编号:HB14YJ088);2012年国家社科基金项目"缩小居民收入差距金融对策研究"(课题编号:12BJY034)资助;教育部中西部高校提升综合实力工程项目阶段成果

摘　　要：本文在对相关文献总结梳理的基础上,分析了河北省农业保险发展现状和现存问题,采集河北省2007-2013年11个市的面板数据,构建静态和动态面板计量模型,实证分析了河北省农业保险对农业生产影响的方向和力度,并对实证结果进行了子样本的稳健性检验。无论是全样本还是子样本,实证结果一致认为:农业保险对农业生产具有显著的促进作用,并且其对农业生产的促进作用依赖于各地区的农业风险水平,其影响力度会随着农业风险水平的增加而增大;另外,人均农作物播种面积、农业保险赔付率、人力资本对农业生产也具有正向影响,而农业风险对农业生产具有负向影响。Basedona review ofexistingresearches, this paper analyzed the curre agricultural insurance in Hebei province. Using 11 cities panel data of Hebei structed the static and dynamic panel econometric models to study empirically nt situation and existing problems of province from 2007 to 2013, it con- the direction and strength of agricul- tural insurance impacts on agricultural production, and tested the stabilityof the results for sub-samples. For both the fullsample and the sub-sample, the empirical results all showed thatagricultural insurance had significant effects on agricultural production, its role in promoting agricultural production depended on the agricultural risk level of each region, and its influence increased with the increase of the agricultural risk level. In addition, per capita sown area of crops, agricultural insurance loss ratioand human capital all had positive effects on the agricultural production, but the agricultural risk level had negative impacts on agricultural production.

关 键 词：农业保险 农业生产 面板数据 差分GMM模型 

分 类 号：F840.3[经济管理—保险]