基于改进PERT的装备使用保障过程建模分析  

Modeling and analysis of operation support progress of equipment based on improved PERT

作　　者：李廷鹏[1] 李岳[1] 徐永成[1] 钱彦岭[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学装备综合保障技术重点实验室,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2015年第7期1575-1580,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

摘　　要：计划评审技术(program evaluation and review technique,PERT)自提出以来被广泛用于具有不确定时间参数项目的分析评估中,但经典PERT不能对具有随机后续工序的情况进行建模,而且存在时间参数估计主观性强,估计误差较大等不足。本文提出在经典PERT模型中加入跳转虚工序的方法增强其对随机工序的建模能力,并提出了相应的分析评估方法。另外,提出了基于德尔菲评估法与专家权重相结合并综合相似工序的历史数据的方法克服经典方法在时间参数确定方面的不足。最后,利用某装备的使用保障过程PERT建模分析实例验证了该方法的有效性。The program evaluation and review technique （PERT）is widely taken into analysis and evalua-tion of programs which include random time parameters,but the classical PERT is limited in modeling the case including random after working procedure and the method of time parameters evaluation is subjectivity and inac-curate.A jump virtual working procedure concept and its analysis method are proposed to enhance the modeling ability of the classical PERT.Moreover,a new time parameters evaluation theory is presented to improve the reliability of parameters,which combines the Delphi evaluation method with experts’weight and takes the simi-lar history data into account.Finally,a detaild analysis and evaluation of the operation support process of equip-ment based on the improved PERT validates the practicability of the proposed method.

关 键 词：计划评审技术 德尔菲 使用保障 风险评估 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学] TH17[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]