基于ESDA-GIS的湖北省耕地生态承压能力时空演变分析  

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Cultivated Land Ecological Carrying Capacity with ESDA-GIS Framework in Hubei Province

作　　者：邱丽娟[1,2] 杨倩[1,2] 林爱文[1,2] 李兴正[1,2] 李海江[1,2] 嵇莹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学教育部地理信息系统重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第7期85-90,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41301586)

摘　　要：采用生态足迹模型结合ESDA分析法,以县域为基本尺度,对湖北省2003~2012年间耕地生态承压能力的时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）研究期内,湖北省人均耕地生态足迹呈上升趋势,耕地承压能力下降,耕地利用总体呈不可持续状态;（2）空间分布上,各县市耕地承压能力差异明显,总体呈现＂西高中东低＂的格局,县市数量上呈＂不可持续〉弱可持续〉可持续〉强可持续＂的＂金字塔型＂结构;（3）空间关联上,湖北省耕地生态承压能力存在显著的正的空间自相关;HH型集中分布在鄂西且布局稳定;LL型主要分布在鄂中及鄂东,呈＂中部扩大,东部缩小＂的趋势;HL型分布较分散,且有增多和东移的趋势,东部地区耕地承压能力出现了极化趋势。中低产田改造及种植结构调整是增强耕地可持续利用的有效途径。Based on ecological footprint model and ESDA, this paper conducted an analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity from 2003 to 2012 at county level. The results show that： （1）In the 10-year period, the ecological footprint per capita of cultivated land has been increasing, and the ecological carrying capacity presents a downward trend, which means that the use of cultivated land in Hubei is in unsustainable state as a whole. （2）As to the spatial distribution, the spatial variance of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity is significant, presenting a pattern of＂High in the west, Low in the middle and east＂. The number of counties on the ranks of ecological carrying capacity from unsustainable to relatively strong sustainable gradually decreases, in a ＂pyramid＂ manner. （3）With respect to spatial autocorrelation, high positive spatial autocorrelation is detected on the distribution of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity. H-H counties obviously concentrate in the west steadily. L-L counties are mainly distributed in the middle and east of Hubei. The area of L-L type in the middle continues to expand, while in the east performs the opposite way. The distribution of H-L counties is scattered and its location is moving toward east indicating that the polarization trend of ecological carrying capacity in the east has occurred. The improvement of middle-low yielded cultivated land and the adjustment of plantation structure are the effective ways to strengthen the sustainable development of cultivated land.

关 键 词：耕地 生态承压能力 时空演变 湖北省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F301