上海市多环芳烃排放清单构建及排放趋势预测  

CONSTRUCTION OF THE EMISSION INVENTORY OF POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS OF SHANGHAI AND PREDICTION OF ITS EMISSION TREND

作　　者：刘伟亚[1] 刘敏[1] 杨毅[1] 陆敏[1] 侯立军[1,2] 于英鹏[1] 汪青[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海200062 [3]安徽师范大学地理系,安徽芜湖241003

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年第6期1003-1011,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41130525);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371451);国家自然科学基金项目(41101502)

摘　　要：以美国国家环境保护局（US EPA）优先控制污染物清单中16种多环芳烃（PAHs）为研究对象,仅考虑人为排放源,根据11种主要排放源排放数据和相应排放因子估算上海市PAHs年排放量。结果表明：2012年上海市16种PAHs的排放量约为447.8t,7种致癌性PAHs排放量为60.06t,排放密度为70.6kg/km2。从排放源看,炼焦用煤和民用燃煤是PAHs排放的主要来源,两者占总排放量的56.0%,天然气、炼油排放量次之。从排放谱看,萘（NAP）排放量最大,占总量的30.8%,其次为菲（PHE）,致癌性PAHs占排放总量的13.4%。另外,PAHs排放以低环（2~3环）为主,占排放总量的71.1%,其次为4环的Fl、Py、BaA和Chr,高环的D[ah]A排放量最低。利用地区生产总值（GDP）和能源消耗数据拟合公式预测2020年能源消耗量,进而预测得2020年PAHs排放量约为356.57t。Emission inventory of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） contribute to control the emissions of PAHs and to reveal their sources. In addition, emission inventory can provide basic data and scientific evidences for the research of migration and fate of PAHs in multi--media environments. The emissions of 16 PAHs which are listed as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency （US EPA） priority pollutants was estimated using reported emission activity data and emission factors. Emission characteristics of PAHs were discussed and the results were compared with other cities ＇ emission inventories in this study. It was estimated that the total emission of these 16 PAHs in 2012 in Shanghai was 447.8 tons, of which coking industry and domestic coal combustion, as the major sources, accounted for 34.7% and 21.3 % of total emission, respectively. This emission character was similar to Taiyuan＇s PAHs emission inventory. Additionally, natural gas and refining industry accounted for 15.6% and 10.7% of the total emission, respectively. The emission intensity of PAHs in 2012 was about 70.6 kg/km^2 in Shanghai, which was much higher than the average intensity of China, while lower than those of 76 metropolises in China. The amount of carcinogenic PAHs was identified as 60.06 tons, which accounted for 13.4%of the total emission. The emission amount of naphthalene accounting for 30.8% of the total emission was the largest, followed by phenanthrene. Additionally, the low molecular weight species with 2--3 rings of PAHs emissions were the dominating, proportion being 71.1%, and D[ah]A was the minimum. The total emissions of PAHs showed a slight downward trend from 2000 to 2012. An equation fitted using regional gross product （GDP） and energy consumption data were conducted to predict energy consumption by 2020. It was predicted that GDP in 2020 will be 36 173.14 hundred million RMB, and energy consumption will be 14 175.33 ten thousand tons of standard coal. According to the forecasted data, PAHs emission will be about

关 键 词：多环芳烃 排放清单 排放因子 不确定性 上海 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]