基于数学模型的云南省电力消费量的预测与分析  

The Forecast and Analysis of Yunnan Electric Power Consumption Based on Mathematical Model

作　　者：刘太园 张朝元[1] 

机构地区：[1]大理学院数学与计算机学院,云南大理671003

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2015年第5期6-10,共5页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41464004);云南省教育厅科学研究基金重点项目(2013Z152)

摘　　要：本文采用多元线性回归法在SPSS软件上对云南省近26年来的电力消费量进行了分析,得出了影响电力消费量五项指标的回归模型,并对该模型进行了显著性检验.结果表明,该模型显著性较高,可用于实际预测.应用该模型对历史数据进行拟合,对2011年与2012年的电力消费量进行预测,得出预测值具有85%以上的准确率.This paper uses the multiple linear regression method to analyze the electric power consumption of Yunnan province for 26 years in the SPSS software .The regression model is established for five indicators of power consumption and significance test is implemented on this model .The results show that the model has substantial significance and can be used for practical prediction .The model has been applied in fitting historical data and the fitting effects are very good .The forecast of electric power consumption in 2011 and 2012 has resulted in accuracy over 85%.This model can provide certain reference values for related fields .

关 键 词：数学模型 多元线性回归 云南省电力消费量 预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]