我国肉鸭产业经济发展与预测研究  

Study on Economic Development And Forecast of Duck Industry in China

作　　者：麦尔旦.吐尔孙 王雅鹏[1,2] 闫建伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [3]周口师范学院经济管理学院,河南周口466000

出　　处：《中国家禽》2015年第11期37-42,共6页China Poultry

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-43-10B)

摘　　要：利用联合国粮农组织（FAO）统计数据、国家水禽产业技术体系产业经济研究团队调研统计的21个主产省区和典型示范县的数据,采用了ARIMA模型、线性回归模型、对比调整法等方法对2015年的肉鸭产业经济发展进行了综合预测。结果表明：由于2013年受H7N9流感事件的冲击,价格和生产量均有所下降,进入2014年一直处于反弹增长态势,而且这一趋势还会在2015年持续一段时期,根据3种预测方法综合预测：2015年肉鸭的出栏量为35.1152亿只,较2013年增长14.55%;产肉量683.94万吨,较2013年增长9.02%;鸭肉白条鸭价格为13 894.1元/吨,较2013年增长5.82%,波动值为11 942.7~15 845.4元/吨。总的来说,2015年肉鸭产业将呈现平稳增长的态势。Based on the duck production data from FAO and the statistics of National Waterfowl Industry Technology System of industry economics research team survey the major producing provinces and 21 counties typical demonstration data, the duck industrial of 2015 economic development of a comprehensive forecast were predicted using the ARIMA model,linear regression models,contrast adjustments. The comprehensive forecasting results showed that：As 2013 by media reports of people suffering from the impact of H7N9 influenza,the price and production was declined,then the growth trend has been in the rebound in 2014, and this trend will continue for some time in 2015. Therefore, according to three integrated prediction method to predict slaughter for 3.51152 billion in 2015,an increase of 14.55% compared with 2013;meat production was 6,839,400 tons,an increase of 9.02% compared with 2013;white bars duck price of 13 894.1 yuardton, an increase of 5.82% compared with 2013,the fluctuation in the value of 11 942.7 yuardton to 15 845.4 yuan/ton. According to the results of the analysis and forecast,in 2015 the whole duck industry will show a steady growth, stable and sustainable development of the industry in order to ensure price stability and ducks raised related policy implications.

关 键 词：肉鸭产业 出栏量 产肉量 价格 预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F304.2