水电项目总承包成本风险系统动力学识别模型  

Cost Risk Identification of General Contractor in Hydropower Project Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：黄建文[1,2] 黄琴[1] 石春[1] 肖稀 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [3]雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司,四川成都610000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第6期122-125,130,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金面上项目(2014CFB670);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)开放基金项目(2014KSD01)

摘　　要：水电工程的建设一般投资大、周期长,受自然环境、技术手段和市场波动等内外部不确定因素影响较大,所以成本变动可能性很大。总承包商要避免成本风险带来的不利影响就必须了解项目成本变动的影响因素并采取有效措施。系统动力学通过动态分析和反馈来帮助决策者理解复杂系统的结构和特点。本文提出了运用系统动力学进行总承包成本风险识别的基本思路,从风险模型结构要素及作用机理方面进行了论述,运用Vensim PLE软件绘出风险结构图,建立了风险识别模型,揭示了风险因素及其内在联系,对成本风险进行反馈识别,从而降低项目成本中威胁的负面影响,提高总承包商对建设项目的管理水平。The hydropower project construction is always with long cycle, large investment, complicated construction conditions, and affected greatly by engineering internal and external uncertain factors of technical means and market fluctuation, so the possibility of cost change is very great. The general contractor who wants to avoid the adverse effects of cost risk must understand the factors affecting the project cost change and take effective measures. System Dynamics （SD） can use dynamics and feedback to assist decision makers in understanding the structure and characteristics of a complex system. The study proposed the basic idea of solving the cost risk identification for the general contractor by system dynamics, and discussed the idea from the aspects of risk model structure and the factors and mechanism, then drew the risk structure diagram by the Vensim PLE software and established a risk identification model to reveal the risk factors and their internal relationship, whose aim was to reduce the negative effects of project threats, and to improve the management level of the general contractor.

关 键 词：总承包商 系统动力学 成本风险识别 作用机理 水电项目 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程] TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]