全球价值链视角下中国增加值出口及其影响因素  

China's Value-added Export and Its Determinants under Global Value Chain

作　　者：卫瑞[1] 张文城[1] 张少军[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第7期3-20,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：2014年福建省社科规划项目"对外贸易与中国就业变化:基于MRIO模型和SDA技术的分析"(2014C044);2014年福建省社科规划项目"中国对外贸易的碳排放转移效应及碳排放责任研究"(2014C045);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"要素成本上升背景下我国外贸中长期发展趋势研究"(13JZD010)的资助

摘　　要：基于世界投入产出数据库，采用MRIO模型测算1995～2009年中国增加值出口的变动趋势，并采用结构分解方法分析了9种因素对中国增加值出口变化的影响。结果显示，1995-2009年外需引致的中国增加值出口由1425亿美元增加到10396亿美元，增幅高达629．36％，增加值出口对于国内增加值创造的重要性在不断提高；外国最终需求的来源地结构变动、中国前向国际产业关联变动和外国最终需求规模变动是影响中国增加值出口变化的3个最主要因素，分别使中国增加值出口增长278．81％、262．029／6和122．28％；中国国内生产部门增加值系数变动和外国最终需求的产品结构变动不利于中国增加值出口增长或影响很小。Under the background of Global Value Chain, a country＇s ability to export domestic value added reflects its international division status. Based on Multi-Region Input- Output tables from World Input-Output Database, we analyse China＇s value-added export and use Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose 199542009 value-added export of China. The results reveal that= during the research period there is a huge increase for China＇s value-added export, from 142.5 billion to 1039.6 billion. Value-added export is becoming more and more important for China＇s GDP. The change of the source structure of foreign final demand, the strengthening of the forward international industry linkage, the foreign final demand expansion are three main factors to increase China＇s value-added export, contributing 278.81%. 262.02% and 122.28% to the change of China＇s value-added export respectively. The decrease of value-added coefficient in China goes against the increase of China＇s value-added export, while the effect of the composition of final demand is indistinctive. Therefore, in the instance of China＇s high participation of Global Value Chain but low domestic value added creation, in order to improve China＇s international division status, we should increase China＇s value-added export by speeding up the opening up progress of producer services and encouraging producer services export.

关 键 词：增加值出口 投入产出 结构分析 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F740.6[经济管理—国际贸易]