我国城镇化进程中劳动力资源变动趋势模拟研究  

Estimation and Movement Trend of Labor Resources of the Urbanization Process in China

作　　者：李玉梅[1,2] 童玉芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070 [2]贵州民族大学管理学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《人口与发展》2015年第2期14-22,共9页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目<中国人口城乡结构变动与环境可持续发展>资助(项目号10JJD840005);北京市属高等学校创新团队建设与教师职业发展计划项目(IDHT20130523);贵州师范大学自主博士科研项目

摘　　要：采用多区域人口情景预测模型,以2010年全国第六次人口普查数据为基础,模拟预测城镇化进程中2050年前我国劳动力资源规模、结构及在城乡间的变化趋势。模拟结果表明,中国劳动力资源总量2016年达到峰值后开始负增长,尤其2027年开始以年均770万人的速度快速下降。劳动力资源占总人口比重不断减少,抚养负担不断加重。城镇化的快速发展使得城镇劳动力资源总量增加,但2034年后劳动力老化问题不断突出,而农村劳动力资源总量逐年下降,劳动力资源年龄结构趋于合理。如何提升劳动力资源素质,建立适合我国劳动力资源年龄结构的经济增长方式应是解决问题的关键。The article made a prediction about the amount, structure and the tendency of labor resources of urbanization process until 2050. This conducted with multi - regional population forecasting model, according to the sixth national population census data. The results indicate the amount of labor resources goes to a peak in 2016, and then a rapid decline begins with an average annum rate of 7.7 million after 2027 in China. The proportion of working age popu- lation continuously reduces, and the dependency load is increasing. Under the background of rapid development of urbanization, the scale of labor force increase, but after 2034 continues to highlight the problem of labor aging in the urban. On the contrary, labor resources decline year by year, and the age structure of labor force become more reasonable in the rural. So how to improve the quality of labor resource, establish the economic growth pattern that suit for the age structure of labor resource should be the key to solving the problem.

关 键 词：城镇化 劳动力资源 趋势模拟 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]