选择与评价新产品开发的风险决策研究  

Research into the Risk Decision-making in Selecting and Evaluating New Product Development

作　　者：杨雷[1] 赵九茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2015年第3期127-133,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(S2012010008924)

摘　　要：本文针对企业投资决策者在新产品开发中的风险决策,基于贝叶斯决策理论及其相关研究建立了评估外部情报信息价值的数学模型,探讨投资决策者风险倾向、新产品开发风险投资未来市场需求以及情报费用对投资决策的影响机制,并用于评估新产品开发决策。研究结果有助于理解企业决策者进行新产品开发决策时应考虑的因素和情境,并能够辅助决策。最后,将这一数学模型应用到一家大型高科技企业的案例中。应用案例分析结果表明:本文的研究结论能够为企业开发新产品提供相关的决策依据。This paper focuses on risk-decision of investment decision makers for new product development. A mathematical model is established for assessing the value of intelligence information based on Bayesian decision theory to explore the impact risk propensity of investment decision makers, the future market demand of the new product and the cost of intelligence information on the influencing mechanism of investment decision-making. The results help investment decision makers to understand factors and situations when new product is developed. Finally, the model is applied to a high-tech enterprise. The application shows that the conclusion of this paper can provide the basis of decision for enterprises.

关 键 词：风险决策 情报信息评估 贝叶斯决策理论 新产品开发 市场需求 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]