细分外推与模糊预测在近海水质非线性时序处理中的比较分析  

Comparison of nonlinear times series of water quality analysis in coastal waters by subdivision extrapolation and fuzzy forecasting

作　　者：张丽梅[1] 宛立[2] 董建新[3] 

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学理学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连海洋大学海洋与土木工程学院,辽宁大连116023 [3]山西交通职业技术学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《大连海洋大学学报》2015年第3期324-329,共6页Journal of Dalian Ocean University

基　　金：辽宁省科技计划项目(2012216012)

摘　　要：近海水质非线性时间序列通常由于采集范围大、时间间隔长带有一定震荡性和模糊性,这使得对其进行分析与预测有一定的难度。本研究中以某近海水质指标磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)、硝酸盐(NO-3-N)、亚硝酸盐(NO-2-N)、铵盐(TNH+4-N)和硅酸盐(Si O2-3-Si)所形成的5种时间序列为例,采用逼近细分模式导出的细分外推法和多参考加权数据的模糊预测法对近海水质时序预测进行了比较分析,并通过图形与误差计算比较了两种方法的异同。结果表明:采用细分外推法预测序列在整体形状上能更好地逼近初始时序,而模糊预测法在整体逼近精度上占有优势。本研究中提出的预测比较方法可为同类问题的预测与模型选取提供参考依据。Usually the nonlinear times series of water quality in coastal waters has uncertainty on analysis and prediction due to certain vibration and fuzziness caused by wide range collection and large interval. The comparison analysis of the nonlinear times series of water quality including phosphate （PO4^3--P）, nitrate （ NO3^- - N ）, nitrite （NO2^--N）, ammonium （TNH4^＋-N）and silicate（SiO3^2--Si） sampled in coastal waters was conducted by subdivision extrapolation, derived from the approximating subdivision scheme, and fuzzy forecasting with much weighted reference data. The comparison of similarities and differences between the two methods through graphics and error calculation revealed that the subdivision extrapolation showed good forecast sequence close to the initial sequence on the whole shape. The fuzzy forecasting method had the advantage of integral approximation accuracy. The findings provide the reference for the solution of the similar prediction and model selection.

关 键 词：近海水质 细分外推法 模糊预测法 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] X55[理学—数学]