“刘易斯拐点”是否来临——基于四次农村社会调查资料的分析  

“Lewis Turning Point”is the Advent——Based on the four rural social survey data analysis

作　　者：柳建平[1] 李孜孜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学商学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《兰州商学院学报》2015年第3期113-122,共10页Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划项目"新生代农民工择业行为及影响因素分析"(10YJA790123);国家自然科学基金项目"劳动力流动与农村经济结构转型的互动机理及调控政策研究"(71063017)的资助

摘　　要：本文利用2007—2013年间的四次农村社会调查资料,对农村劳动力及外出劳动力规模和结构变动趋势、农村外出劳动力工资价格和农业劳动力收入变动趋势等进行了统计分析。结果表明:农村劳动力规模下降和老化趋势明显,外出劳动力占农村劳动力总数的比例不断下降且回流比例不断提高,在外出劳动力工资价格大幅持续上涨的同时,农业劳动力收入水平也有了较大幅度的提高。这些条件基本可以印证我国已进入"刘易斯拐点"的判断。In this paper, based on four rural social survey data between 2007--2013, the rural labor force and changes in the size and structure of migrant labor trends, rural migrant labor wage and price changes in the agricultural labor income trends were analyzed. The results show that： the size of the rural labor force and the aging trend is clearly declining, the proportion of rural migrant labor force in the total rural labor force is declining, but the reflux ratio is rising, migrant workers＇ wage price continue to rise, at the same time, agricultural labor income levels also have a more substantial increase. These conditions can be basically confirmed that China has entered the ＂Lewis turning point＂ the judge.

关 键 词：农村劳动力 规模变动 收入变动 刘易斯拐点 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]