全球LNG市场贸易发展现状及趋势  

Global LNG Trade Today and Development Trends

作　　者：田泽普 王越[2] 潘继平[2] 刘波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学石油与天然气研究中心,北京100871 [2]国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心,北京100034

出　　处：《中外能源》2015年第6期9-16,共8页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：近年全球LNG贸易量持续快速增长,截至2013年,全球共有19个LNG出口国,98条生产线,总液化能力超过2.9×108t/a;同时LNG进口国达到28个,总接收能力超过6.4×108t。全球LNG需求呈现区域性特征,LNG进口主要集中在亚太、欧洲和美洲地区,亚洲一直是重点需求地区,南美成为新兴增长区。目前全球重要的LNG出口国主要集中于中东、非洲、中南美及亚太地区,前五大供应国为卡塔尔、马来西亚、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚和尼日利亚。2013年全球LNG贸易量较2012年增量有限,仅增长90×104t,全年总贸易量2334×108t。需求和供应的区域性变化,导致全球贸易移向也有微小变化,亚太地区强劲的天然气需求,加之亚洲溢价下的高利润,促使多数供应国的出口战略东移,再加上供应量的增多和其他能源的竞争,全球LNG市场价格将会趋同发展。针对全球LNG市场的发展特点及中国的LNG应用市场,建议我国应提早做出合理规划,实现进口资源多元化,在考虑地缘政治关系的基础上增加LNG供应方,引领亚太地区形成合理的LNG价格机制。同时应加快LNG接收站建设,理性适时加大进口。Global LNG trade has been growing exporting countries in the world,which had a of more than 2.9×10^8t/a.The number of LNG rapidly in recent years.At the end of 2013,there were 19 LNG total of 98 LNG trains,with a combined liquefaction capacity importing countries was 28 ,with a combined receiving capacity of more than 6.4×10^8t.Global LNG demand has a regional characteristic.Most LNG importers are located in the Asia Pacific,Europe and the Americas,with Asia always having the biggest demand,and demand from South America is growing rapidly in recent years.Most major LNG exporters are located in the Middle East, Africa,South and Central America and the Asia Pacific.The top five LNG suppliers are Qatar,Malaysia,Aus- tralia,Indonesia and Nigeria.Global LNG trade grew by only 90×10^8t in 2013 compared with 2012 and total trade volume stood at 2334×10^8t.The regional change in demand and supply has resulted in a slight change in the direction of movement of the global LNG trade.The strong natural gas demand in the Asia Pacific, plus the high profit margins resulting from the Asian premium,has encouraged most LNG suppliers to tilt their export strategies towards the east.In addition,due to the increase in supply and competition from other energy sources,the gap between the prices of LNG from different sources is expected to decrease.Given the characteristics of the global LNG market as well as China＇s LNG application market,this article suggests China work out plans as soon as possible to diversify its imports and increase the number of its LNG suppliers while giving full consideration to geopolitical relationships,to contribute to the establishment of a rational LNG pricing mechanism in the Asia Pacific.China should also quicken its pace of building LNG receiving facilities and properly expand its LNG imports in due course.

关 键 词：LNG市场 贸易量 区域性特征 贸易移向 亚洲溢价 价格趋同 多元化 

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