我国两种核燃料循环方案的经济分析与评价  

Economic Analysis and Evaluation of Two Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options in China

作　　者：张建平[1] 王琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《中外能源》2015年第6期35-41,共7页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：市校科技合作专项基金资助项目(项目编号:SXHZ201106)

摘　　要：核电的快速发展给我国目前的核燃料循环体系带来了新的挑战。估算和评价不同核燃料循环方案的发电成本，是充分利用乏燃料的重要前提。在参考我国核电中长期发展规划的基础上，着重讨论了直接处置方案和部分再循环方案两种循环方案。首先。根据公式分别计算出两种循环方案的前端平均发电成本和后端平均发电成本，然后得到不同发电能力的反应堆在不同折现率下的总平均发电成本。然后，基于EXCEL＆CrystalM软件，利用蒙特卡洛方法进行不确定度分析，得出置信水平在95％时部分再循环方案的平均发电成本为7．57～11．14美元／（MW·h），直接处置方案的平均发电成本为8．12—11．10美元／（MW·h）。对于部分再循环方案，当其成本指标发生变化时，其发电总成本的稳定性较差。此外，由敏感度分析可知，天然铀成本、铀浓缩成本和最终处置成本对平均发电成本的影响较大。对于单个反应堆而言，选择直接处置方案的平均发电成本较低；然而对于我国核电总装机容量而言，选择部分再循环方案的平均发电成本较低。此外，闭式循环不仅能节约铀资源，还能减小高放废物的体积，有利于乏燃料的后处理。The large-scale development of nuclear power has created new challenges for China＇s nuclear fu- el cycle system.The estimation of power generation costs of different cycle routes plays a significant role in helping decide on how to utilize spent fuel.Based on China＇s long and medium-term nuclear power development plans ,this article describes two nuclear fuel cycle routes-the direct disposal option and partial recycling in PWRs option.Firstly,the EXCEL software was used to calculate the power generation costs at the front and rear ends of fuel cycle and to get the average total power generation cost for different capacities ,modes of cycle and discount rates,based on which a cycle list stacked plot was drawn.Using the EXCEL ＆ Crystal software and the Monte-Carlo method,researchers conducted an uncertainty analysis and concluded that when the confidence level is at 95%,the average power generation cost of the direct disposal option is 7.57-11.14 US dollars per MW .h and that of the direct disposal partial option is 8.12-11.10 US dollars per MW-h.For the recycling in PWRs option,when the prices of its components change ,the total power will fluctuate.In addition,sensitivity analysis shows that the average power generation cost is generation cost highly sensitive to the prices of natural uranium and uranium enrichment and final disposal cost.For a single reactor,the power generation cost of direct disposal option is lower.However,for China＇s total installed generating capacity,the partial recycling in PWRs option is more cost-effective.Furthermore,closed cycle not only saves urani- um resources but also reduces the volume of high-level radioactive wastes,which helps in spent fuel post- treatment.For these reasons,the recycle scheme better suits China.

关 键 词：核燃料循环 平均发电成本 不确定度分析 敏感性分析 蒙特卡洛 直接处置方案 部分再循环方案 

分 类 号：TL249[核科学技术—核燃料循环与材料]