城镇化与生态环境交互协调行为研究——以黄河三角洲为例  

A Research on Interactive Coordinated Behavior between Urbanization and Ecological Environment—— A Case Study in the Yellow River Delta

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 林晓乐[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2015年第7期49-58,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61273230);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"项目(NCET-12-1027);山东省"金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新中心"首席科学家项目暨山东省社会科学规划重大委托课题(14AWTJ01-4);首都社会建设与社会管理协同创新中心资助项目

摘　　要：城镇化与生态环境系统协调发展是保证经济增长可持续性的内生动力。文章结合熵值法和协调理论构建协调度评价模型,以黄河三角洲各地区数据为基础,计算2013年度各个地区城镇化与生态环境的协调度。运用系统动力学方法,通过VENSIM软件绘制因果反馈图,表明城镇化与生态环境之间存在复杂交互作用。基于东营市数据建立城镇化与生态环境系统的结构流图,通过仿真模拟,发现第三产业产值占比是影响城镇化与生态环境协调度最敏感的因素,建成区绿化覆盖率次之,工业化率影响最弱。通过反馈评价,验证了为产业结构升级有助于提高城镇化与生态环境的协调度的结论,表明优化产业结构是促进城镇化与生态环境协调发展的有效策略。The coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment system is the endogenous power to ensure the sustainability of economic growth. According to the data collecting for each region in the Yellow River Delta , this paper constructs a coordinated evaluation model to calculate the coordinated degree of urbanization and ecological environment of each region in 2013,which combines the entropy method and the coordination theory. The paper,by employing the system dynamics method and the VENSIM software,draws the causal loop diagram,which indicates the presence of complicated in？teraction between urbanization and ecological environment. Furthermore, it builds a structure flaw diagram of urbanization and ecological environment system based on the data collecting from Dongying city. The simulation results illustrate that the ra？tio of the tertiary industry output is the most sensitive factor influencing the coordinated degree of urbanization and ecological environment, the green coverage of the built-up area ranks the second, and the industrialization rate is the weakest. The feedback evaluation validates the conclusion that the upgrading of industrial structure is conducive to improving the coordinat？ed development of urbanization and ecological environment,which proves that the upgrading of industrial structure is the ef？fective strategy to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment.

关 键 词：城镇化与生态环境 系统动力学 优化产业结构 协调发展 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济] F127