中国与印度进出口贸易潜力研究  

Potential of Import and Export Trade between China and India Based on Space Gravity Mode

作　　者：霍强[1] 秦绍娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《东南亚南亚研究》2015年第2期37-42,109,共6页Southeast Asia & South Asian Studies

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学基金项目"BCIM和CAFTA框架下云南对外经贸潜力测度及转型升级路径研究"(项目编号:QN2014020)的研究成果

摘　　要：本文以中国加入WTO以来中国与印度双边货物贸易发展特点来构建进口和出口贸易引力模型，并运用2001～2012年中国与38个主要贸易伙伴国家（地区）的面板数据，实证检验中国进口和出口贸易引力模型，测算中国与印度进口和出口贸易潜力。近年来中国与印度进出口贸易潜力系数均大于1，进口贸易潜力巨大，出口贸易也有空间，而提升双边贸易合作关系、建设中印缅孟经济走廊等举措可以进一步释放双边贸易潜力。Bilateral trade between China and India has continued to develop since China joined the WTO. Under Gravity Model and a bilateral trade dataed from 2001 to 2012,including 38 major trading partners of China,result shows that the potential value of the import and export trade between China and India is all greater than 1,indicating that there are much room to bilateral trade. Enhancing bilateral trade relationships,and constructing the CIMB Economic Corridor is beneficial to development of China- India bilateral trade.

关 键 词：引力模型 中国与印度 进出口 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.51[经济管理—产业经济]