云南孟定盆地48年来相对湿度变化分析及预测  

ANALYSIS ABOUT CHANGES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN MENGDING BASIN OF YUNNAN OVER THE PAST 48 YEARS AND FORECAST

作　　者：程清平[1,2] 王平[2] 徐强[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007 [2]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2015年第2期19-24,30,共7页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：低纬高原环境与区域发展"云南省特色优势学科群建设项目资助;"云南南滚河自然保护区综合科学考察

摘　　要：依据孟定气象站1961-2008年逐月相对湿度数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验、相关分析、R/S分析、均生函数预测模型等方法,分析了孟定盆地48年来相对湿度的变化特征及未来变化趋势。结果表明：48年来孟定盆地年相对湿度呈缓慢的增加趋势,倾向率为0.017%/10a,48年来增加了0.08%。各季节变化不同,春、夏季分别以0.94%/10a、0.03%/10a的倾向率呈增加趋势,秋、冬季相对湿度呈减少趋势,倾向率分别为-0.22%/10a、-0.68%/10a;春季突变增加趋势显著,冬季突变减少趋势显著且5年的变化周期十分显著;相对湿度的增加与降水量的增加和蒸发量以及日照时数的减少有密切的关系;R/S分析法和均生函数预测模型均表明2009-2013年相对湿度将仍呈增加趋势。Based on the monthly relative humidity data from the meteorological station in Mengding from 1961 to2008,the author used the Mann Kendall test,correlation analysis,R / S analysis method and the prediction model of mean generation function to analyze the change of relative humidity characteristics and future trends from1961 to 2008 in Mengding town basin. The study suggests that the annual relative humidity presented a trend of slowincrease and the rate was 0. 017% /10 a in Mengding basin,increased by 0. 08% over the past 48 years. It varied from seasons. The relative humidity in spring and summer showed a trend of increase in,and the rate was increased by 0. 94% /10 a,0. 03% /10 a respectively. But in autumn,winter it showed a trend of decrease with the rate of 0. 22% /10 a,0. 68% /10 a respectively. The spring mutation increased significantly,and the winter mutation decreased significantly with the change cycle of 5 years. The increase of relative humidity has a close relationship with the increase of precipitation,the decrease of evaporation and sunshine duration. The R / S analysis method and the prediction model of mean generation function showed that relative humidity would still increase in the next 10 years.

关 键 词：孟定盆地 相对湿度 变化趋势 预测 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]