生态环境数据预测方法研究  

Research on Prediction Method of Ecological Environmental Data

作　　者：罗桂兰[1] 张梅[1] 冯立波[1] 邓寿容[1] 李雨[1] 

机构地区：[1]大理学院数学与计算机学院,云南大理671003

出　　处：《大理学院学报（综合版）》2015年第6期13-17,共5页Journal of Dali University

基　　金：大理学院博士启动基金资助项目(KYBS201015);云南省创新训练项目(2012S-CXCY-6);大理学院创新训练项目(X-CXCY-2014-9)

摘　　要：大规模生态环境数据的处理和统计分析为环境保护和预测提供重要依据,其分析和预测方法成为数据处理的研究重点。在对海量生态环境数据的分类整理和综合处理基础上,基于时间序列的指数平滑法建立了一种动态二次指数生态环境数据预测模型。该模型针对生态环境的实时变化特征,利用二次指数平滑方法实现了静态参数的动态优化处理。以云南大理生态环境数据为样本,通过实验仿真测试和模型分析,结果验证了该模型的适用性和准确性。Large scale ecological environmental data processing and statistical analysis results can provide important bases for environmental protection and prediction, the analysis and prediction method become the research emphases in data processing. In this paper, based on the classification and comprehensive data processing of magnanimous ecological environment data, a prediction model of ecological environment data is established based on dynamic and two exponential smoothing method of time series. Aiming at the real-time variation of ecological environment, the dynamic optimization process of static parameters is realized by using two exponential smoothing methods. Taking the ecological environment data of Dali, Yunnan as the sample, through the simulation test and the model analysis, its results verify the applicability and accuracy of the model.

关 键 词：生态环境 指数平滑法 动态预测 

分 类 号：TP301.6[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]