基于替代式自下而上法的区域旅游交通碳排放测度  

Carbon dioxide emissions from regional tourism transport: a substitutional bottom-up analysis

作　　者：陶玉国[1,2] 黄震方[1] 史春云[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,徐州221116 [3]江苏师范大学城市与环境学院,徐州221116

出　　处：《生态学报》2015年第12期4224-4233,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(41271149);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790175);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目

摘　　要：区域旅游交通碳排放测度是分解旅游业减碳任务的一个难题。在剖析替代式自下而上法机理的基础上,以长三角为例,依托归纳法和变异系数法,尝试从人均GDP、人均消费水平和人均运输线路长度三方面测算出游距离,采取以实地调研数据为主、辅之以Mus TT模型法拟定各旅游交通方式的距离比例,立足区情确定碳排放系数,并以区域输入和输出的双向旅游流的人次比值法则对替代结果进行还原调整。研究表明:(1)2011年,长三角旅游交通碳排放总量为8.32 Mt,其中江苏省、浙江省和上海市分别为3.23、2.98 Mt和2.11 Mt;(2)飞机和自驾车共占排放量的71.64%,较明显低于世界平均比例,二者是降低旅游交通碳排放的关键;旅游公共交通的碳排放比例具有远高于发达国家甚至全球平均水平的"中国式"烙印;由高碳排放系数的旅游交通方式向低碳排放系数甚至零碳排放系数的转变,是旅游交通减排的基本方向。Global climate change is one of the most pressing issues in today＇s world and all countries are concerned with reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The tourism industry is highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change and global warming, as good weather is a high priority for tourists. Carbon dioxide emissions from tourism transport have to be monitored to enable sustainable tourism development in the 21st century, particularly as fossil-fuel energy sources are becoming scarce. Assessing carbon dioxide emissions from regional tourism transport is difficult but these data are needed to implement effective protocols to reduce emissions. We use the substitutional bottom-up analysis method to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions from tourism transport in the the Yangtze River Delta area. This analysis method is used for the first time. Based on a region＇s per capita GDP, per capita income and transport route distance per vehicle, we calculated that the daily tourism distances per person in Jiangsu Province, Zhejaing Province, and Shanghai were 3.43, 3.61 and 5.12 km in 2011, respectively. Based on on-the-spot data questionnaires and public transport data as well as tourism data （MusTT model）, we calculated that the major tourism transport modes in the Yangtze River Delta area in 2011 were air （12.98%）, train （14.60%）, coach （49.88%）, and car （16.84%）. The transport coefficients of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from air, train, coach, and car travel were 121, 9, 28 and 76 g/pkm, respectively. Our results were adjusted to account for tourists that came from other provinces to the destination province vs destination province tourists who traveled to other provinces. We conclude that： （1） Carbon dioxide emissions related to tourism transport were 8.32 Mt （Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Shanghai were 46.15, 32.29 and 21.56%, respectively）. The CO2 emissions per trip in these three areas were 7.85, 8.69 and 9.14 kg, respectively. （2） The CO2 emissions from air, train,

关 键 词：替代式自下而上法 旅游交通 出游距离 碳排放系数 长三角 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]