局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退的转换关系  

The Transformation Relationship Between Regional Economic Recession and Global Economic Recession

作　　者：杨帆[1] 滕建州[1] 颜蒙[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第7期50-59,共10页Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"世界经济周期波动对中国经济的传导机制研究"(编号:14YJC790151);中国博士后科学基金第55批面上资助项目"经济周期波动的国际传导机制研究"(编号:2014M551146);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"世界经济周期对中国经济周期影响的传导渠道研究"(编号:QN14006)

摘　　要：把握局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退的动态转化规律对于预测经济衰退走势和合理规避风险具有重要意义。本文实证分析了1961年—2013年局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退间的转换关系。研究结论如下:首先,美、日、英三国共同的经济衰退是世界经济衰退的先导因素;其次,自20世纪90年代开始,中国、印度和巴西与发达国家的经济周期协同变动趋势开始显现,由此导致的共同衰退将直接转换为世界经济衰退;最后,东亚地区和拉美地区的局部经济衰退将通过发达国家和三个较大发展中国家间接导致全球经济衰退。此外,东亚和拉美的经济衰退之间无明显转换关系。Mastering the dynamic tmndormation rule between local economic recession and global economic recession has an important guiding significance for predicting recession and reasonable risk aversion. By adopting the cluster Markov regime switching model proposed by Hamilton and Owyang （2012） ,and using Gibbs sampler and cross validation methods, this paper carries out an empirical study on the transfer relationship between local economic recession and global economic recession during the period of 1961 - 2013. Conclusions are as follows： first, the synchronization of economic recession of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom is the leading factor in global economic recession; secondly, since the beginning of 1990＇s, the trend of business cycle synchronization between Chinese, India, Brazil and the developed countries began to appear, and their common recession wull directly convert to a global economic recession; finally, the local economic recessions of East Asia and Latin America Hill indirectly turn into a global economic recession by firstly transferring to the developed countries and three large developing countries. In addition, the transfer relationship between the recessions of East Asia and Latin America is not obvious.

关 键 词：局部经济衰退 全球经济衰退 转换关系 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]