不同HIV疾病分期系统对HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗预后的预测价值比较  

Comparison of three staging systems in predicting prognosis for HIV/AIDS patients after initiating antiretroviral therapy

作　　者：梁飞立 陈梅娟 方敏 周少云 宋开星 苏齐鉴[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西横县人民医院感染性疾病科,广西南宁530300 [2]广西中医药大学附属瑞康医院艾滋病研究中心,广西南宁530011

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第13期2366-2368,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广西壮族自治区南宁市科学研究及技术开发项目基金(20123160)

摘　　要：目的探讨中国HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称中国系统)、WHO HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称WHO系统)、美国CDC HIV疾病临床分期系统(简称美国系统)对HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月预后的预测价值。方法比较各系统分期HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月内无预后不良生存率。计算各系统预测的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)。结果在三个系统内各分期无预后不良生存率差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。中国系统、美国系统、WHO系统及CD4细胞分层对预后不良预测的AUC分别为0.649,0.740,0.763,0.641。结论三个系统及CD4细胞分层对HIV/AIDS抗病毒治疗6个月的预后均有预测价值,但WHO系统的价值较高。Objective To study the usefulness of China staging system, USA staging system and WHO staging system in predicting prognosis for human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome（HIV/AIDS） patients during the first six months after antiretroviral therapy（ART）. Methods The survival rates of HIV/AIDS patients with non-poor prognosis in each one of staging systems were compared during the first six months after ART. The areas under the ROC curves（AUC） were calculated to assess the value of predicting prognosis in each one of staging systems. Results The survival rates with non-poor prognosis were significantly different within each one of staging systems（P〈0.05）. The AUC of predicting poor prognosis for China staging system, WHO staging system, USA staging system and CD4 cell count classification was 0.649, 0.740, 0.763, and 0.641, respectively. Conclusion The three staging systems and the CD4 cell count classification are all useful in predicting prognosis of HIV/AIDS patients during the first six months after ART, among which WHO staging system has the highest predicting value.

关 键 词：人类免疫缺陷病毒 获得性免疫缺陷综合征 反逆转录病毒治疗 预后 临床分期 

分 类 号：R194[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]