基于防突工作流程的突出预测敏感指标体系构建方法  

Founding a sensitive index system based on the outburst-prevention workflow

作　　者：舒龙勇[1,2] 张浪[1,2] 范喜生[1,2] 李阳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]煤炭科学技术研究院有限公司安全分院,北京100013 [2]煤炭资源高效开采与洁净利用国家重点实验室(煤炭科学研究总院),北京100013

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第3期42-47,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2011ZX05040-001-007);973国家重点基础研究发展计划(2011CB201206);国家科技重大专项(2011ZX05063-009)

摘　　要：针对现有突出预测敏感指标确定方法存在的问题,基于瓦斯压力和瓦斯含量的联系,考察了临界压力和含量的对应关系,确定了瓦斯压力为杨柳煤矿10#煤层区域预测敏感指标,临界值为0.74MPa;采用实验室分析和现场验证相结合的手段,通过引入相对误差和迫近度等分析方法,确立了钻屑解吸指标Δh2为10#煤层局部预测敏感指标,临界值为180 Pa;结合我国目前防突工作基本流程,确定了突出预测敏感指标体系的构建方法,构建了杨柳煤矿10#煤层突出预测敏感指标体系。The present paper intends to introduce a sensitive index system we have developed based on the outburst-prevention workflow in the coal mine production practice. As is known,the dominant factor leading to the coal mine outburst or explosion may vary from mine to mine due to the different structures of the coal seam,different mining conditions and different area positions.Such differences in the coal mine production that brings about difficulties to judge one of the most important and outburst prevention means： the necessity to build up an outburst forecasting index system properly and accurately. Based on the existing problems of the current coal and gas outburst forecasting need and the necessity to establish the sensitive index system,the paper took the gas pressure and gas content as main factors and made an exploration of the corresponding relation between the critical gas pressure and the critical gas content. Joining the outburst forecasting sensitive index value and the mine dynamic phenomena together,we have taken No. 10 Seam Area of Yangliu Coal Mine as the case study sample in hoping to develop the outburst forecasting sensitive index system. The dominant index in the system is the gas pressure with a critical value of 0. 74 MPa,followed by the auxiliary index which is referred to as the gas content with a critical value of 8m3/ t. Putting together the laboratory analysis and on-site verification,the paper has integrated the Relative Error Method and the Approaching Degree Method into one to analyze the relationship among the drilling cuts indexes while assessing the reliability of desorption index mensuration between MD- 2 and WTC with the simulation method in the lab conditions. What is more,when the outburst forecasting sensitive index and critical value were set up,the paper began to implement an on-site investigation and finally defined the drilling cuts desorption Δh2as the sensitive index of No. 10 seam area,with a critical value of 180 Pa,and the drilling cuts desorption K1 as the auxiliary i

关 键 词：安全工程 突出预测 煤与瓦斯突出 敏感指标 指标体系 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]