基于系统动力学的港口船舶通航风险成因耦合模型  

Coupling model for risk formation on ship navigation at port water areas using system dynamics

作　　者：曹久华 席永涛[1] 胡甚平[1] 陈杰[1] 郭云龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]南通航运职业技术学院航运系,江苏南通226010

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第3期65-71,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：浙江海事局科技项目(2014-25)

摘　　要：为改善水上交通安全条件和有效避免风险事故的发生,需要研究港口船舶通航风险的形成机理。以港口船舶通航复杂性系统为视角,借助系统动力学方法进行港口船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真。首先,探讨港口水域船舶通航风险的形成原因及成因的相互影响和耦合类型;其次,基于港口水域船舶通航风险的人、船、环境与管理子系统构成因素,提出港口水域船舶通航风险成因之间的相互关系动力学流图;然后,建立非线性的系统动力学动态耦合模型,通过港口水域船舶通航风险成因耦合仿真,分析同质因素和异质因素的耦合作用。最后,结合青岛港船舶通航风险影响因素的数据,采用系统动力耦合模型进行港口水域船舶通航风险成因的耦合作用程度分析。结果表明:在港口船舶通航风险成因中双因素耦合作用下,与环境因素耦合造成的风险较大,特别是与交通环境因素耦合后风险大,且变异系数小。需要切实加强交通组织管理,从而降低客观因素的耦合程度,可有效避免通航事故,提高通航系统的安全可靠性。The present paper is to offer a renovated coupling model for risk analysis of the marine navigation in the sea-port surroundings based on the system dynamics. It is well known that it is a typical issue to do research on the vessel navigation risk mechanism in the maritime safety field in hoping to enhance the water traffic safety and prevent from the maritime accidents. Seeing the complexity of the ship navigation system,we have chosen the topic of the risk resulting coupling in the port water areas by using the system dynamics（ SD） simulation while taking the marine navigation data of Qingdao Harbor as a case-study sample.For the said purpose,we have first of all introduced the effects of the formation factors of the multi-factor coupling on the risk of the vessel navigation system. And,secondly,we have brought about a system of the dynamic flow chart on the complicated relationship between the causes of the risk on the marine navigation on the sea port areas to describe and display the system risk dynamic characteristic features on the basis of the four sub-systems involving the risks to be faced by the SNPWA,i. e. the crew,the ship,the environment and the ship control（ CSEC）. Furthermore,we have also offered a quantitative dynamic coupling model on the risk system to analyze the coupled homogeneous and heterogeneous factors on the said system risk through a simulated model of the coupling relation between the causal factors on the system risk of ship navigation at the port areas. And,finally,we have also calculated out the coupling degree in the system risk formulae on the ship navigation at the port water areas by using a dynamic coupling model on the risk system. The analysis results of the sampling data quoted prove that,the coupling effect involves the environmental factors apparently in the range of the dual-factors reduction,especially when the coupling degree with the navigation factors can be expected to be higher than those on the land transportation sites but minor in co-efficiency in variat

关 键 词：安全工程 风险评估 风险成因 风险仿真 耦合理论 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]