中国省域经济社会发展差异的时间演变及空间格局——基于2000-2012年省域空间动态面板数据的分析  

Time Evolution of Chinese Provincial Differences in Economic and Social Development and Spatial Patterns——Based on 2000-2012Provincial Domain Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

作　　者：时涛[1,2] 杨冬梅[3] 

机构地区：[1]泰山医学院管理学院,山东泰安271000 [2]山东大学公共卫生学院,山东济南250012 [3]山东财经大学统计学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期74-83,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国区域经济增长的制度影响与空间计量研究"(12BJL065);山东省高等学校人文社科研究项目"基于时空尺度的山东省基本公共服务均等化研究"(J13WG06)

摘　　要：通过计算我国各省区2000-2012年经济社会发展水平总指数,应用泰尔指数一阶嵌套分解、空间自相关和收敛模型进行分析,研究发现:2000年以来我国经济社会整体发展呈现"V"型态势,发展水平和质量在逐年提高的同时,地域非均衡发展仍然存在;西部各省区内部差异明显,这是影响全国总体非均衡发展的主要原因;收敛分析证明了我国各省区经济社会发展水平虽然在绝对数上不存在σ收敛,但在相对数上还是存在绝对β收敛,这说明逐步缩小差距趋于均衡发展的态势存在。因此,政府对中西部地区的进一步政策干预是必不可少的,未来应强化政府在中西部市场的调控、引导效用。By calculating every province’s total index of economic and social development levels from 2000 to 2012,and applying the first order nested Theil index decomposition,spatial autocorrelation and convergence model,we found that：social development of China’s overall economy has displayed a＂V＂type situation since 2000.While development level and quality increase year by year,local non-balanced developments still exist;The western provinces have a significant internal differences,thus a major source of influencing the country’s overall non-balanced development.Convergence analysis shows that the economic and social development level of China’s provinces and regions does not exist in absolute termsσconvergence,but there is still a relatively few absoluteβconvergence,a tendency to gradually narrow the gap to a balanced development being in sight.Therefore,further policy intervention of the Governments to the Midwest is necessary,and the future government regulation and guidance should be strengthened in the Midwest market.

关 键 词：经济社会发展差异 泰尔指数 空间自相关 Σ收敛 绝对Β收敛 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]