黑龙江省主要农业气象灾害特征及其对粮食产量影响的灰色关联分析  

Characteristics of main agro-meteorological disasters and grey correlation analysis of their effect on grain yield in Heilongjiang province

作　　者：王秋京[1] 马国忠[2] 李宇光[1] 王铭[1] 曲辉辉[1] 吕佳佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象科学研究所,哈尔滨150030 [2]黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2015年第5期823-827,共5页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF201310;CCSF201313);黑龙江省气象局科学技术研究项目(HQ2015018)

摘　　要：【目的】了解黑龙江省主要农业灾害的变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响,为相关部门制订粮食生产决策提供科学依据。【方法】以黑龙江省1972~2012年干旱、洪涝、风雹及低温灾害的受灾面积数据、同期粮食平均单产及四大粮食作物（玉米、水稻、大豆、小麦）单产数据为样本,利用灰色关联分析法探讨主要农业气象灾害特征及其对粮食产量的影响因素。【结果】20世纪80年代黑龙江省受涝灾影响较严重,受灾比相对较高,而干旱受灾比相对较低;20世纪70、90年代及2000年以后黑龙江省干旱受灾比相对较高,处于较干旱阶段。20世纪70年代是低温冷害和风雹灾害相对集中的时期,80年代受灾比减弱,但后期出现反弹趋势。1972~2012年黑龙江省农业受灾程度和粮食总产呈波动性变化,受灾严重年份粮食总产基本呈下降趋势,灾害性天气直接影响粮食生产。灰色关联分析表明,干旱是影响粮食作物平均单产及水稻单产最大的农业气象灾害,洪涝灾害次之;对于玉米和大豆,洪涝的影响略大于干旱;小麦受干旱和低温影响较大,而风雹和洪涝次之。【结论】干旱和洪涝是影响黑龙江省粮食生产的主要气象灾害。根据黑龙江省西旱东涝的特点因地制宜推广减灾技术,可有效减轻灾害损失。[Objective]In order to provide scientific references for related departments to make grain production deci- sions, the present study was conducted to investigate characteristics of main meteorological disasters and their effects on grain yield. [Method]Based on disaster-affected areas of drought ,flood, wind hail and low temperature, and average yields of gain and fourth most important food crops （corn, rice, soybeans, wheat） in I-Ieilongjiang province during 1972-2012, the characteristics of main meteorological disasters and their effects on grain yield were investigated by the method of the grey correlation analysis. [Result ]The results showed that, Heilongjiang province suffered flood disaster seriously in the 1980s, so the disaster-affected area ratio of flood was relatively higher, that of drought was relatively lower. The disaster- affected area ratio of drought was relatively higher in the 1970s, 1990s and after 2000. The wind hail and low temperature were centralized relatively in the 1970s, while their disaster-affected area ratios decreased in the 1980s, which began to rebound in the late 1980s. The agro-meteorological disaster degree and total grain yield presented fluctuating change in Heilongjiang province druing 1972-2012,and total grain yield in severe disaster-suffered years was also in decline, the disastrous weather had a direct impact on grain production. Gray correlation analysis indicated that the drought had a far greater impact on average gain yield and rice yield than flood; the flood had a far greater impact on average yield of corn and soybeans than drought; the drought and low temperature had a far greater impact on average wheat yield than wind hail and flood. [ Conclusion ]Drought and flood were two major agro-meteorological disasters in grain production of Hei- longiiang province. According to the characteristic of drought in west and flood in east,the disaster prevention and reduc- tion operations were applied to effectively reduce losse caused by disaster.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 粮食产量 灰色关联分析 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]