基于次序Logit与Probit的川渝农民工工作流动的影响因素研究  

A Positive Research on Influencing Factors for Job Mobility of Migrate Rural Workers in Sichuan and Chongqing via Order Logit and Order Probit Models

作　　者：许秀川[1] 汪军[1] 张尧瑶 翟浩淼[1] 张卫国[1] 罗倩文[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第11期143-150,共8页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"中国新型城镇化包容性发展的路径设计与战略选择"(12&ZD100);国家软科学重大研究计划项目"农村科技创业金融政策研究"(2012GXS1D004);重庆市社会科学规划项目"重庆城乡统筹背景下新生代农民工就业模式研究"(2010YBJJ13);西南大学博士基金项目"共同富裕背景下城乡收入差距‘敛散性’研判及制度诱因研究"(SWU1209303);重庆市人文社科重点研究基地项目"中外农业职业教育比较研究"(09SKB02)

摘　　要：基于对四川、重庆等12个区县及工业园区300户农户的问卷调查,通过建立次序Logit与次序Probit模型分析了个人特征、职业特征及城镇生活等因素对务工农民工作流动的影响,结果显示:家中未成年子女读书人数、打工时是否有朋友、打工时遇到的困难数量、务工期间对工作和生活等方面的总体满意程度,对务工农民工作流动有显著影响;其他因素则对务工农民的工作流动无显著影响.针对实证研究结果,提出了相关的政策及建议.In a positive research ,questionnaire survey was made of 300 farmer households in 12 counties or industrial parks of Sichuan and Chongqing .Based on the data obtained ,an order logit and order probit model was established to analyze the variables of personal ,occupational and living aspects of rural migrate workers and assess their contributions to job mobility .The results showed that factors such as the number of young children of schooling ,circle of friends ,the hardship encountered and the overall satisfaction while the rural migrate workers were working in cities had significant effects on their job mobility ,but other factors did not .Based on the results of this research ,several proposals are offered in this paper as policy options .

关 键 词：农民工 工作流动 收入差异 工作稳定性 

分 类 号：O211.9[理学—概率论与数理统计] F328[理学—数学]