季节和降雨对细小可燃物含水率预测模型精度的影响  

Effects of season change and rainfall on forecast model accuracy of predicting fine fuels in forests in Pangu Forest Farm

作　　者：张运林[1] 张恒[1] 金森[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2015年第8期5-12,共8页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(201204508)

摘　　要：观察大兴安岭盘古地区的典型林分樟子松、白桦、兴安落叶松林的地表细小死可燃物含水率随不同季节变化的动态变化,应用气象要素回归法,分别使用无降雨数据、无降雨和有降雨混合数据及降雨数据,分春季、秋季和混合季节,建立了该地区森林地表可燃物含水率的统计预测模型,并研究了季节以及降雨对该类模型精度的影响。结果表明:季节和降雨对模型精度具有显著的影响,对于3种林型整体而言,混合模型的误差最大,可高达30%以上;秋季误差小于混合模型,大于春季预测模型;春季含水率预测模型精度最高,误差小于10%。无降雨模型预测效果最好,模型误差控制在3%以内,有降雨时段误差也可超过30%。如果采用区分季节和降雨时段建立可燃物含水率预测模型,据此做出的森林火险等级预报不会产生实质的影响,有助于提高火险等级预报的准确性。Moisture dynamic changes ofifne fuels under forest stands of larch, Scotts pine and birch were observed and measured in Pangu Forest Farm, Daxinganling Region, Heilongjiang Province in spring and autumn in 2010. Prediction models of surfaceifne fuels in the forest stands were established by using meteorological element regression method, based on the datasets （data of spring, autumn and mixed season, data with rainfall, data without rainfall and rainfall or no-rainfall mixed data, and further, the effects of season changes and rainfall on accuracies of the models were analyzed. The results indicate that season and rainfall had signiifcant influences on the model accuracy; Models established by using spring dataset had higher accuracy than those by using autumn dataset or mixed data, The MAEs were in a range of 2%-10% while those of mixed models could be higher than 30%; Models established by using dataset without rainfall were more accurate than those by using dataset with rainfall or mixed; MAEs of these models were around 3%, the models with rainfall data were higher than 30%. If fuel moisture prediction models are established by using dataset separately from spring and autumn and from no rainfall and rainfall, the prediction results calculated by these prediction models will not have influential errors, and this would help to improve the accuracy of forecastingifre danger rating for the study area..

关 键 词：林地细小死可燃物含水率 季节变化 降雨 含水率预测模型 大兴安岭 盘古林场 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]