“新常态”下广东省中长期电力需求预测  

Medium and Long Term Electric Power Demand Forecasting for Guangdong Province under the New Normal

作　　者：郭挺 饶建业[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州供电局有限公司系统规划研究中心,广东广州510620 [2]电力规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《广东电力》2015年第6期6-11,共6页Guangdong Electric Power

摘　　要：探讨了在经济逐步迈入"新常态"的情况下,广东省未来15年的电力需求情况。首先在分析广东经济发展特点及影响因素的基础上,对广东经济发展进行预测。其次,分析广东历史用电情况,考虑影响电量增长的因素,对电量增速区间进行预估;同时结合经济增长、产业结构调整、城镇化率、人口增长、技术进步和产业政策等方面对广东电力需求发展的影响,利用产值单耗法、弹性系数法和人均用电量法对广东全社会用电量进行了预测。最后,对广东最大负荷利用小时数进行分析,在电量预测结果的基础上预测了广东未来最大用电负荷。This paper discusses electric power demand in future 1 5 years in Guangdong province under the condition of econo-my entering into the New Normal step by step. Firstly,it forecasts economic development of Guangdong province on the ba-sis of analyzing economic development characteristic and influencing factors. Secondly,the paper analyzes historical elec-tricity consumption in Guangdong province,considers factors affecting increase of electric quantity and forecasts speed in-crease interval of electric quantity. Meanwhile,combining affect on electric power demand development by economic in-crease,industrial restructuring,urbanization rate,population increase,technical progress and industrial policy,unit con-sumption method of output value,elastic coefficient method and per capita household electricity consumption method was used for forecasting electricity consumption of the whole social of Guangdong province. Maximum load utilization hours of Guangdong province were analyzed and maximum electrical load in the future in Guangdong province was forecasted based on result of electric quantity forecasting.

关 键 词：“新常态”经济 中长期电量预测 弹性系数法 人均用电量 经济发展预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]