Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes  

作　　者：LIU Run LIU Shaw Chen Ralph J.CICERONE SHIU Chein-Jung LI Jun WANG Jingli ZHANG Yuanhang 

机构地区：[1]State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University [2]Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica [3]Department of Atmospheric Science, NCU [4]National Academy of Sciences [5]Earth System Science, University of California [6]Institute of Urban Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2015年第8期1027-1037,共11页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported in part by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDB05010500);the Clean Air Research Project in China (Grant No. 201509001);the Sustainable Development Research Project of Academia Sinica, Consortium for Climate Change Study;funded by the National Science Council (Grant No. 100-2119-M-001-029-MY5);sponsored by the Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality;the State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University

摘　　要：Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China （1955-2011） and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） data （1979-2007） and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days （28 days） and ） 10 consecutive dry days （36%） are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.Significant increases of heavy precipitation and decreases of light precipitation have been reported over widespread regions of the globe. Global warming and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have both been proposed as possible causes of these changes. We examine data from urban and rural meteorological stations in eastern China （1955-2011） and compare them with Global Precipitation Climatology Project （GPCP） data （1979-2007） and reanalysis data in various latitude zones to study changes in precipitation extremes. Significant decreases in light precipitation and increases in heavy precipitation are found at both rural and urban stations, as well as low latitudes over the ocean, while total precipitation shows little change. Characteristics of these changes and changes in the equatorial zone and other latitudes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes. In eastern China, increases of annual total dry days （28 days） and ） 10 consecutive dry days （36%） are due to the decrease in light precipitation days, thereby establishing a causal link among global warming, changes in precipitation extremes, and higher meteorological risk of floods and droughts. Further, results derived from the GPCP data and reanalysis data suggest that the causal link exists over widespread regions of the globe.

关 键 词：extreme precipitation global warming AEROSOLS meteorological risk of floods and droughts 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]