收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡问题研究  

Income Inequality and the Imbalance of Current Account in China

作　　者：翟晓英[1] 翟晓鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学管理与决策研究所,山西太原030006 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2015年第7期16-27,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(12JYC790251)

摘　　要：文章通过理论分析和实证分析论证了收入不平等和中国经常账户失衡的数量关系。首先构建了收入不平等和经常账户关系的两期模型,研究表明:低收入人群的跨期消费决策受到参照群体(高消费群体)消费外部性的影响,且这种影响随着收入不平等程度的增加而增加;同时,收入不平等对经常账户的影响与金融发展程度相关。随着收入不平等程度的增加,金融发展程度越高,经常账户越容易产生赤字;当金融发展程度较低时,低收入人群获得自由借贷的范围和水平受到限制,普遍推迟当前消费,进而导致经常账户盈余。文章还基于中国1980-2012年的统计数据,采用GMM估计方法对收入不平等和经常账户的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:收入不平等是造成中国经常账户失衡的重要影响因素;收入不平等对中国经常账户的影响还受制于中国的金融发展水平。This paper demonstrates the relationship between income inequality and the imbalance of current account in China through theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, the two-period model of the relationship between income inequality and current account shows that interemporal consumption decisions of low-income groups are affected by reference groups＇ （high-income groups） consumption externalities and the impact increases with the rise in income inequality. Secondly, the effect of income inequality on current account is related with financial development, namely the increase in income inequality and the improvement of financial development lead to higher possibility of current account defi- cit; and with lower financial development, low-income groups generally delay current consumption because of the restrictions on the scopes and levels of free loans, leading to current account surplus. Based on statistical data from 1980 to 2012, this paper uses GMM estimation method to empirically study the relationship between income inequality and current account. It shows that income inequality is an important factor affecting current account imbalance in China and the influence of income inequality on China＇s current account is also subject to financial development.

关 键 词：收入不平等 经常账户 金融发展程度 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]